Mailbag: Where is the hope that Alex Golesh can win in the SEC?

This week: Win-loss projections, players for the future, the impact of the NIT run, Dylan Cardwell, Matt Olson and this summer's movies

(Austin Perryman/Auburn Tigers)

Welcome back to the mailbag.

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One of the things I want to always make sure we do at The Observer is give you your money’s worth. That’s easy to do in football and men’s basketball season, when we’re covering games and practices all the time. It’s not as easy during the offseason.

So that’s why I’m thrilled to have Henry cover baseball for us. I love that my brother was able to get super deep into his skill set to help produce breakdowns of the basketball additions here. I remain amazed at how well Dan can turn discussion into a listenable podcast. And I hope y’all enjoy the offseason newsletters I write here, too.

That being said, I am proud of the output we had at The Observer this week, even when news around Auburn sports was very quiet. We covered a lot of ground and had some fun doing it. Let’s make that a habit, shall we?

Let’s also make a habit of getting great mailbag questions like these each week. In this edition, we talk about Auburn football expectations under the new regime and look back at the impact of a big decision in Auburn basketball. We also have some movie talk and Braves chatter at the end.

Let’s go.

Golesh couldn’t finish better than fourth in the AAC with the best QB in the league. Where is the hope he can win in the SEC?

El Gato Smokey

This question might strike some readers as overly negative or pessimistic. But, to be honest, I like it. While I think Alex Golesh was a good hire and has a real chance of getting Auburn back to where it wants to be, nothing guarantees that. Every hire carries some sort of risk. Fans don’t have to be blindly over-the-top about a coach.

But let’s break down this question piece by piece. First, we’ll start with the part about how Golesh never finished better than fourth in the AAC. That is factually correct. His USF teams tied for fifth, sixth and fourth in the league over his three seasons there. Golesh doesn’t have a conference title ring like other G5-to-P4 hires can flash.

Those finishes need to have the proper context, though. USF went 4-4, 4-4 and 6-2 in conference play over Golesh’s three seasons there. He inherited a team that had won a grand total of three conference games over the previous four seasons. USF already had that number beat by the end of Year 1. He didn’t step into a machine.

Additionally, you have to remember that Byrum Brown wasn’t healthy in Year 2. The Bulls weren’t able to take the step forward they wanted that season, and a lot of that had to do with the injuries they had to grind out. But they still went .500 in AAC play.

In Year 3, USF was right behind a three-way tie for first, and USF beat one of those teams (North Texas) and didn’t get to play another (Tulane). It’s also worth noting that both of USF’s conference losses came by a combined six points. The Bulls were as close to getting to the AAC title game as possible. It wasn’t a typical “fourth place.”

So, yes, Golesh never broke through and got to the conference title game at USF. But there was a lot of rebuilding to do, and the Bulls were arguably a play or two away from getting it done. Still, three straight bowl games and three straight non-losing seasons in conference play? That’s an accomplishment, given the circumstances.

It’s also a huge reason why Golesh was the hire at Auburn.