The Stretch 4: Breaking down the biggest Auburn-Alabama game (so far)
It's 1 vs. 2 in many areas, and it's the first 1 vs. 2 *ever* for the SEC. Here are the keys for the Tigers' gigantic trip to Tuscaloosa.
(Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)
AUBURN — It’s a matchup between the top two teams in the AP poll.
It’s a matchup between the top two teams in the coaches poll.
It’s a matchup between the top two teams in the SEC.
It’s a matchup between the top two teams in KenPom’s offensive efficiency.
It’s a matchup between the top two teams in Wins Above Bubble.
It’s a matchup between the top two teams in strength of schedule.
At the moment, there is very little separating Auburn and Alabama — just a single non-conference loss and about 150 miles.
On Saturday afternoon, the two in-state rivals will square off for the first No. 1 vs. No. 2 game in the history of the SEC. For a regular-season men’s basketball game, the stage has never been bigger in this conference, especially given the league’s current strength from top to bottom.
And, over the last several seasons, Auburn and Alabama have been at the forefront. That’s what makes them deserving teams for this gigantic platform.
“If you would try and predict who would be in that matchup, Kentucky certainly would be a school that would be in it,” Bruce Pearl said of the SEC’s first No. 1 vs. No. 2 game. “It'd be Kentucky and who else? Could it be Tennessee? Could it be Florida? Could it be Arkansas, back in the day with Nolan Richardson? Could it be a Dale Brown LSU team? Who could it be?
“I don't think many people would have picked Auburn and Alabama to be those teams. And yet, since ‘17-18, Alabama and Auburn have won eight championships. … The championships in the SEC, over the last eight years, run through the state of Alabama.”
Round 1 between Auburn and Alabama will take place at the home of the No. 2 team in many of those above metrics.
And while Auburn has been the best on-paper squad in the country, Alabama is arguably the hottest team in high-major basketball. No other power conference team is currently riding a seven-game winning streak. Since losing to Ole Miss a month ago, the Crimson Tide have lit up the scoreboard and drawn even with the Tigers in the SEC championship race.
Entering the season, Auburn’s trip to Alabama was widely considered the toughest matchup on its conference schedule. While the Tigers have exceeded preseason expectations to reach No. 1, Alabama is right where so many expected it to be.
“Alabama had a great postseason run last year, but this year's team is much better than last year's Final Four team — and everyone that has played them understands that,” Pearl said. “They are a great offensive team, they've scored 100 points a gazillion, bajillion times. … They're really deep. They're much bigger than they were a year ago.
“There’s a reason why they were preseason No. 1, or anywhere between 1 and 4. They’ve absolutely lived up to it. We know that going there, we’re going to have to have our best game of the year, our best effort of the year.”
Whoever wins Saturday will be the new solo leader in the SEC regular-season title race. But with a rematch set to close the regular season in Auburn — and plenty of challenging basketball still ahead — nothing will be fully decided this weekend.
(That’s especially true for Alabama, which hasn’t played a current top-10 KenPom team since November but has four such matchups in its final seven games. Auburn, at least, has played four since the start of December.)
Who knows? These two teams could cross paths a third or fourth time in the postseason.
Still, that doesn’t diminish the magnitude of what’s set to unfold Saturday afternoon inside Coleman Coliseum.
“It means a lot,” said Denver Jones, an Alabama native. “Kudos to both great coaching staffs, Alabama-Auburn being 1 and 2, being able to play in this historic matchup. Growing up seeing and hearing about Alabama and Auburn — my house is even divided (with) some Auburn fans, some Alabama fans — it's just going to be a great environment.”
Yes, Auburn and Alabama — two rivals that have spent the majority of its histories not being ranked in men’s basketball — are going to play in only the third No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup between conference opponents since 1998.
“Not in my wildest imagination would I have thought I would be playing in a 1 vs. 2 against Alabama,” said Chaney Johnson, another Alabama native.
Since the invention of the Associated Press Top 25 poll, No. 1 has faced No. 2 a total of 44 times. The No. 1 team holds the all-time lead over No. 2, 23-21.
The average final score of those matchups? No. 1: 75, No. 2: 75.
Pearl wouldn’t mind seeing that history — as narrow and nerve-wracking as it may be — repeat itself on Saturday.
“We've gone there the last two years and been in last-possession games,” Pearl said. “There's some things we've got to do to be able to finish. I'd give anything right now if you told me that we're going to be able to go up there and be in a last-possession game.
“That's not going to be easy. It's going to be harder than it's ever been to be in a last-possession game, because they're that good.”
For a full preview of No. 1 Auburn’s trip to No. 2 Alabama on Saturday afternoon, here is this week’s special edition of The Stretch 4 newsletter.