Auburn baseball's paths to a national seed in the NCAA Tournament

The Tigers have put themselves in position to have home-field advantage all the way to Omaha. Here's what they need to do to lock it up.

(Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

AUBURN — Following five straight SEC series wins, Auburn has positioned itself well to be a national seed as we sit just two weeks and change out from the NCAA Tournament selection show that airs Monday, May 25 at 11 a.m. CT.

With seven games remaining in the regular season, both D1Baseball and Baseball America have Auburn projected as a top-eight national seed — No. 6 overall and No. 4 overall, respectively. That would put the Tigers in line to host a Regional and a Super Regional, if they were to make it that far in the tournament.

As we stand, the Tigers rank No. 6 in four separate polls and No. 5 in Baseball America. Most importantly, they rank No. 4 in the RPI rankings.

Going by the RPI, Auburn has played the toughest schedule in the country and has racked up 12 Quad 1 wins. That’s tied for No. 5 nationally with Texas A&M, which the Tigers just took a road series from this past weekend — marking, arguably, the crown jewel of its resume.

Additionally, the Tigers are one of only three teams, along with the two Mississippi schools, that have not dropped a Quad 3 or 4 game this season.

Because all seven of Auburn’s remaining games are Quad 1 games, that will remain true when Selection Monday rolls around in a couple of weeks.

The quadrant system works as follows:

• Quad 1: Home games against teams ranked 1-25 in RPI, neutral games against teams ranked 1-40 and road games against teams ranked 1-60

• Quad 2: Home games against teams ranked 26-50, neutral games against teams ranked 41-80 and road games against teams ranked 61-120

• Quad 3: Home games against teams ranked 51-100, neutral games against teams ranked 81-160 and road games against teams ranked 121-240

• Quad 4: Home games against teams ranked outside the top 101, neutral games outside the top 161 and road games against teams outside the top 241

While Auburn currently has itself in a great position to lock up a national seed, it’s impossible to predict how the next two weeks will unfold, both on a micro and macro level.

And that’s before remembering that Auburn has to travel to Starkville for a series that starts Thursday, two days after its midweek win over UAB in Birmingham and four days after its series at Texas A&M in College Station ended.

And, after that, Auburn will have a road midweek game against a Jacksonville State team that is top 30 in the RPI — and also run-ruled the Tigers just a month ago.

And then, to wrap up the regular season, Auburn will return home to take on a Georgia team that has led the SEC standings pretty much wire to wire.

That’s a lot on one team in a span of about nine days, and it’s a lot that can change in that time period, both nationally and on the Plains.

Assuming the tournament committee puts little to no stock in conference tournament performance, as is usually the case — example: Auburn last year — let’s try to take a stab at what the Tigers’ tournament projections will look like with every potential end to its season.