There's a clear blueprint for Auburn baseball to still win its regional

Since 2016, only 21% of regional hosts that lost in Game 1 came back to take the bracket. Here's what the Tigers can learn from them.

(Addi Ray/Auburn Tigers)

AUBURN — Simply put, the odds are not in Auburn’s favor.

Since 2006, 39 NCAA Tournament regional hosts have lost their opening game. And, of that total, only 12 have bounced back to win four straight games and advance to the super regional — which works out to a 31% success rate.

Furthermore, since 2016, 19 regional hosts lost their opener. And, of those 19, only four rallied to win four straight — just a 21% comeback rate.

Here is the list of the teams that have pulled this feat off:

1. 2025 Oregon State

2. 2019 East Carolina

3. 2017 Florida State

4. 2016 South Carolina

5. 2014 Louisiana

6. 2012 Baylor

7. 2010 Cal State Fullerton

8. 2008 Georgia

9. 2008 Stanford

10. 2008 Florida State

11. 2007 Wichita State

12. 2006 Oklahoma

The main reason for this is that the team that makes it to the winner’s bracket out of Game 1 — in Auburn’s case, Milwaukee — plays one less game than the team that ends up meeting it in the end.

This means that team can save arms, something that is already becoming a real concern for an Auburn team that had the best staff arguably in the country this season.

Now, here’s some good news: Of that 39, 14 of those losing regional hosts — about 36% — went on to lose their very next game. Because Auburn won a high-scoring game over NC State on Saturday, that narrows the comparable list down to 25 teams, with 12 having made it the supers.

That’s a 48% hit rate. Better.

Additionally, three other 2026 hosts — UCLA, Southern Miss and Florida State — lost their opener. Playing the odds, one of the four advancing to the supers would be a 25% hit rate, which falls fairly well in line with both the 21% and 31% marks. Southern Miss has already been eliminated.

Basically, in other words, one of those three remaining teams finding their way into the supers is likely. So why not Auburn?

For this experiment, we’re going to compare 2026 Auburn to the four teams since 2016 that have pulled off the four wins in a row and see how they managed to do so.