Mailbag 194: How high should Auburn fans' expectations fly?

This week: That UVA comparison, late-game execution, Tahaad Pettiford, upcoming scorers to watch, pure shooters, snow and brisket

(Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

COLUMBIA, S.C. — By the time you’re reading this, the Auburn basketball team and I will already be in South Carolina.

(No, we didn’t travel together.)

With the winter storm hitting the road between Auburn and Columbia on Friday morning, we both made the decision to beat the weather and spend the day off the roads. It’s going to end up working out well for the Tigers and The Observer, because Auburn plays an early game Saturday against South Carolina.

This week’s mailbag is all about this basketball team, which might be a win away from getting to No. 1 in the Associated Press poll — and, more importantly, No. 1 in the predictive metrics.

Auburn still leads the way in the NCAA’s NET rankings, as the Tigers far and away have the best collection of quality wins in college basketball. We’re basically at the halfway point of the regular season, and Auburn is on pace for something special.

That thought leads us right into our first couple of questions this week, along with some awesome research from a longtime subscriber. We’ve also got questions on Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn’s late-game execution, upcoming opponents, Johni Broome and a whole lot more.

Thanks as always for supporting The Observer and making this type of Auburn basketball coverage possible.

Stay warm. Let’s go.

How many teams could the SEC realistically land in the NCAA tournament?

Second question: I think we all know what the ceiling is for the Auburn men. And of course the floor is that anyone can lose in the first round, no matter what. But what's a good, high-middle-of-the-road expectation, one where maybe we all agree the season's been a success, gotta feel good about that, even if it's not quite the title we're dreaming of in January?

Amorak

Heading into this week’s games, according to the almighty Bracket Matrix, the SEC was projected to get 13 teams into the NCAA Tournament:

• Auburn: 1 seed

• Tennessee: 1 seed

• Alabama: 2 seed

• Florida: 2 seed

• Kentucky: 2 seed

• Mississippi State: 3 seed

• Texas A&M: 3 seed

• Oklahoma: 6 seed

• Ole Miss: 7 seed

• Georgia: 9 seed

• Arkansas: 10 seed

• Vanderbilt: 11 seed

• Texas: Last Four In

Additionally, Missouri would be considered a composite First Four Out team.

There’s going to be some shuffling and some cannibalization in the SEC this season, but this is definitely a conference that could produce over half of the top 12 teams in the field. Even if it just turns out to be around half of the top 16 teams, that’s still insane. The record for most total bids from a single conference is 11, and I would bank on the SEC breaking that record.

But let’s get to the bigger question, the second one. The ceiling is, absolutely, a national title. Analytically, Auburn is in a position to be one of the highest-rated teams in the last couple of decades. (That’s interesting, considering I heard from the other side of the state in the preseason that it was going to happen with another team.) This is an elite offense built on high levels of experience, balance and chemistry. The defense, when on its A game, is still one of the best you’re going to find in the country.

College basketball’s postseason is the most exciting and least fair way to determine a champion. There’s a reason why those one-bid conferences are building tournaments that have quadruple-byes and doing whatever it takes to protect their best teams. All it takes is one off game, and an entire season of excellence gets torpedoed.

Think about last season. Auburn basketball had, on paper, its best team since 1999. Going 24-7 and 13-5 in the regular season and following it up with a SEC Tournament title should be celebrated for what it was: A phenomenal year. Auburn was a trendy Final Four pick for a reason.

Then Chad Baker-Mazara got ejected early against Yale, which hit a bunch of March Madness-y shots and pulled off the first-round upset. Was that a massive disappointment? Yes. Does that take away what Auburn did before that? No.

So, you’ve got to at least keep that in the back of your mind as Auburn goes on a campaign this season that’s projected to be the best in program history. Injuries happen. Bad breaks happen. Upsets happen. This is college basketball, after all.

At this point, what should be a reasonably strong expectation for this season? Auburn has already built NCAA Tournament résumé that’s got a sizable head start on the rest of the field. Capturing a No. 1 seed for the Big Dance, no matter what happens in the tournament itself, should be part of that expectation. A No. 2 seed wouldn’t be the end of the world, either, if it still comes with Auburn playing well late in the season.

Now, this is where things get wild. On both KenPom and T-Rank, Auburn is currently projected to win the toughest edition of the SEC that we’ve ever seen by three games. Auburn is getting 15-3 right now on the predictive metrics, while Alabama, Florida and Tennessee are all at 12-6. I cannot stress enough how remarkable that is.

Does that mean it’s SEC regular-season champion or bust for Auburn? That’s a hard line to draw, to me, because being the best team over the course of 18 games is quite difficult — especially when you’ve got the target on your back from the jump. But this team is fully capable of getting there.

I’ve long said that a celebrated basketball season at Auburn is finishing in the top four of the conference. That gives you a double-bye in Nashville, and it puts you in a great position to be a top-16 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I still believe that.

However, I think that, given Auburn’s 7-1 start in Quad 1 games and the metrics it’s pumping out right now, we can tighten up that definition without going overboard. If Auburn is one of the two best teams in the SEC — maybe three, if it’s a tie at the top — and can grab at least a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, then I think it would have delivered on its expectations.

That kind of spot would put Auburn in the best possible position to defend its SEC Tournament title and make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. At the end of the day, that’s what it’s all about. If you can’t get a ring at the end of the regular season, put yourself in a spot to get one later.

That’s what I would suggest for Auburn fans. But I also know we’ve got enough Peacocks in here, including the leader of the movement himself.

And this team is 110% worthy of that attitude.

With that in mind, here’s a great message I got from a reader earlier this week. It’s not exactly a mailbag question, but I think it’s worth putting in here: