Mailbag 192: Who would Auburn rely on without Johni Broome?

This week: Shooting percentages, strength of schedule, Jahki Howard, the QB battle, the RB room, Christmas presents and Boxing Day

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C Johni Broome (Steven Leonard/Auburn Tigers)

AUBURN — Auburn fans can breathe a little easier today. The worst-case scenario for a legitimate basketball title contender was avoided.

Johni Broome suffered an injury to his right shoulder Tuesday night against Georgia State. After getting an MRI on Wednesday morning, Broome was determined to not need surgery. He’s considered day-to-day, and it’s coming at the best possible time for Auburn. The Tigers only play twice in the next 16 days.

Bruce Pearl made it sound like Broome wouldn’t be available Saturday against Purdue, which will be the last of Auburn’s big tests in what was a historically strong non-conference schedule. If that’s the case, what can we expect out of the Tigers on offense against the Boilermakers in Birmingham?

That’s the lead question of this week’s mailbag. We’ve got plenty of Auburn basketball in here, along with a few questions about the football backfield during a busy transfer portal window. Then we wrap up with a couple of final Christmas questions, along with me trying to explain myself from earlier this week.

Thanks, as always, for making The Auburn Observer possible with your subscriptions, your reads and your listens. Merry Christmas to all of y’all.

Let’s go.

Who does the offense run through without Johni?

Brice

It might feel like recency bias to say Chaney Johnson. Johnson just exploded for his career-high in points in a game in which Broome barely played, but does that mean he’s going to be the guy if the big man misses time moving forward?

Probably so. Let’s go back to something Pearl said — with a ton of conviction, mind you — after Auburn’s 41-point win over Georgia State on Tuesday night:

“Chaney Johnson is not starting. So what? Chaney Johnson is putting the work in. Don’t have Johni, who do we go to? Chaney Johnson. He delivers. Great example of staying right and ready. Didn’t hear a word from him. We get the ball inside to Johni Broome over and over again. Got the ball inside to Chaney Johnson. He was ready.”

Auburn has an incredibly balanced offense, but its biggest strength is playing off of the sheer gravity that Broome creates down low. He’s a gifted scorer with both hands, and it’s tough for opponents to play him straight-up in the post.

You saw some of that in Johnson on Tuesday night against Georgia State. He did a whole lot of dunking, yes, but there were also several examples of him attacking with both hands on both sides of the lane. He’s shooting 74.2% from 2-point range this season, which ranks 28th in Division I right now. He’s been a freight train in the paint.

The question will be if Johnson can distribute well enough from that spot. Broome’s kickout assists have made Auburn’s offense a true pick-your-poison type of attack. Johnson had cut down his turnover rate and increased his assist rate this season, but it remains to be seen if he can provide the same amount of inside-out flexibility.

Johnson is averaging 28.5 points per 40 minutes with Broome off the floor, compared to just 11.6 when he’s played alongside him. While he’s a great fit next to Broome, particularly on defense, it’s clear Auburn trusts Johnson more to score when the All-American center is on the bench.

Now, some of you might be saying, “It was only Georgia State.” And that’s fair. But Georgia State has a tall, physical lineup that wasn’t afraid to rough it up Tuesday. The talent gap is noticeably there, yet Georgia State is bigger than Purdue and has been a better team on the boards so far this season. Purdue tries to grind teams down on offense with a methodical pace, setting up inside-out opportunities for 3.

As Pearl said Tuesday night, Johnson is built for those physical matchups down low. Before the Georgia State game, Johnson’s best performance of the season was a double-double at Houston. He’s also a player who seems to thrive when his team needs him: Remember his 16-point performance at Georgia last season, when Jaylin Williams was out?

Of course, Johnson can’t do this alone. It’s worth noting that the experienced guard trio of Chad Baker-Mazara, Miles Kelly and Denver Jones are all scoring slightly better when Broome isn’t on the floor. That doesn’t mean they are better without him — it just means that they’ve proven that they can produce on offense whenever the team’s best player is on the bench.

I would expect Auburn to have to rely on those veterans to carry more of the workload on offense, especially with the way Baker-Mazara can hunt his own shot. (He’s had a couple of colder shooting performances, which makes this a prime opportunity for a bounce-back game.) Purdue’s defense hasn’t been stellar this season, ranking No. 64 on KenPom. It doesn’t create a lot of havoc, and that’s a good sign for Auburn.

With that in mind, I would also look for Tahaad Pettiford to step things up some more in Broome’s absence. In Quad 1 matchups this season, Pettiford is averaging 13.3 points per game and shooting a blazing 51.5% from deep. He’s proving himself to be a big-game player who can create offense in an instant. Watch out for him Saturday.

How will Auburn change up the rotations if Broome is out for an extended period of time?

David