How close is Auburn to the NCAA Tournament bubble right now?

While the Tigers have lost four straight, they're still unanimously projected to make it to the Dance. But what will they have to do to lock it down?

(Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

AUBURN — Two weeks ago, the last time there was a Bracketology update here at The Auburn Observer, the theme was all about the great resume opportunities ahead for a team that had just seen its four-game winning streak come to an end.

Since then, Auburn still hasn’t picked up another win. The Tigers have taken three straight losses: Back-to-back home ones to Alabama and Vanderbilt, followed by a road defeat last Saturday at the hands of Arkansas.

It’s the type of skid that has sent some Auburn fans straight to the panic button. Auburn is now 14-11 overall and tied for 10th in the SEC with a 5-7 record. The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games since the COVID season in 2020-21, which was the last time it missed the NCAA Tournament.

Auburn is trending in the wrong direction on the floor, and that would make it easy to proclaim that the Tigers aren’t going to make the NCAA Tournament in the first season under head coach Steven Pearl.

But those fans just need to take a deep breath and remember: The Selection Committee looks at the entire body of work, not just what’s happening right now. And there are still three weeks of the regular season left to play.

When we last looked at the bracket analytics for Auburn, it was No. 29 in the Selection Committee’s go-to NET rankings. After three more losses, Auburn is all the way down to… No. 32.

As much as nobody wants to lose — especially a home rivalry game in which you led by double-digits at one point — it’s important to note that dropping Quad 1 games like Auburn just did is more of a stretch of missed opportunity than resume damage. Teams don’t get punished by the numbers for losing tough games to good teams.

And Auburn has played a ton of tough games against good teams this season, which is why it’s still unanimously projected to make the NCAA Tournament.