Mailbag 240: What is Auburn's path to an NCAA Tournament bid?

This week: DEFENSE, Steven Pearl, roster construction, the 7-man rotation, the transfer portal and ranking every SEC arena

(Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

AUBURN — After a few travel-influenced weeks away, welcome back to the mailbag.

…well. Y’all have got a lot on your mind about this Auburn basketball team in this late-season slide.

I’m not going to waste any time with a long intro, because there’s a lot in this mailbag. Thanks for reading and asking your questions. The engagement means even more this time of year, especially for an independent outlet.

Let’s talk about the immediate present — and the future — of this basketball program.

What’s a realistic path to an NCAA bid now? Finish 2-1 for 17-14 then win two games in Nashville? That puts us at 19-15 with six Quad 1 wins, although UK & NCSU are barely Q1, so it could be fewer. I haven’t seen anything in the last few weeks that makes me think we can do that.

Scott

Tough loss on Tuesday. How many more wins do you think Auburn needs to make March Madness between the regular season and SEC tournament? I feel like they have a slight chance with 3 wins, a pretty good chance with 4, and are essentially locks with 5, although I doubt they get 5 more wins.

If they beat Ole Miss and LSU and lose to Alabama (far from guaranteed), who will they likely see first in Nashville? Or is it too early to tell?

Wolf

First things first: When evaluating Auburn’s NCAA Tournament resume, you’re going to have to put a lot less stock on the overall record. I know that’s the first and most obvious thing people point to teams. After all, it’s literally what you put in parentheses beside the team names in pretty much every bracket out there.

But all records aren’t created equal, and that’s what is helping Auburn right now.

Auburn, as you know by now, has played the toughest schedule in college basketball this season. It also faced a top-25 non-conference schedule. The Tigers have played 16 Quad 1 games. No one else has had more than 14. From the jump, that is going to give you more forgiveness than other teams on the bubble. (It would obviously help Auburn if Kentucky and NC State stayed inside the top 30 in NET. They’re close.)

Quick example: The two other bubble teams in the SEC right now are Missouri and Texas. Missouri is 19-9. Texas is 17-11. Auburn is 15-13. They’re all around the same range in NCAA Tournament projections.

Auburn could have had a non-conference schedule like Missouri (No. 344) or Texas (No. 314). It could have not played Arizona and Purdue on the road and had two paycheck wins instead. It could have played in an easier multi-team event than the Players Era, too. The overall record would be better, but the resume wouldn’t be. Quad 1 wins help you a lot. Quad 1 losses don’t hurt much.

Heading into Thursday, T-Rank had Auburn at No. 40 in its combined resume rankings: No. 37 in KPI, No. 40 in strength of record and No. 42 in Wins Above Bubble. It also had an average analytics ranking of 34.3. Here’s how that compared to the rest of the bubble teams: