Aubserver Mailbag 158: How well do the Tigers matchup down the stretch?
This week: K.D. Johnson's lockdown defense, computer metrics, alley-oops, jump balls, the Pearls and the upcoming CFB video game
SF Chad Baker-Mazara and PF Chaney Johnson (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)
In the press conference after Auburn’s stunning 40-point rout of South Carolina on Wednesday night, Bruce Pearl said the concept of matchups “doesn’t get studied or talked about enough.”
“Certain matchups are certain matchups,” Pearl continued. “So the way we guard or the things we do offensively worked really well against South Carolina tonight. Against Florida and that matchup, the way they play, the way we play — it didn’t match up very well for us. … We’ll have our challenges against Kentucky the way they play, with their size and their athleticism and with the things that they do. That is going to be a tough matchup for us.”
Now, I’m not going to say writing about matchups in a weekly mailbag for a niche Auburn sports newsletter is going to fully address what Pearl was saying. I’m not that delusional. But I have been thinking a lot recently about matchups and how much of sports is defined by them.
There are no perfect machines. Purdue can recruit a seemingly unstoppable 7-foot-4 titan in Zach Edey and build around him for four seasons, and it can still lose at Nebraska and Northwestern. Kentucky and Duke can sign four 5-stars in one class, and they can find out, to varying degrees, that pure talent doesn’t solve everything.
Every strategy, from roster- and staff-building to in-game play-calling, has its pros and cons. I think that gets overlooked far too often. The Kansas City Chiefs just won a Super Bowl with its worst supporting cast around Patrick Mahomes, but they stuck to their plan of drafting on defense, signing ring-hunting vets and letting the best quarterback in football do the rest. While it didn’t make for a pretty regular season, it was enough to win yet another title.
I also thought about this when I worked the Auburn women’s basketball game against No. 1 South Carolina. The Gamecocks usually have what look like the perfect basketball team. Then they were derailed in the Final Four last year by the scoring supernova that is Caitlin Clark. They haven’t lost this season, but a bubble team like Auburn gave South Carolina so much trouble early because of how it plays defense.
We can talk all the time — and I often do — about computer ratings and analytics and winning streaks and stats. But, sometimes, one of the hottest teams in the country runs right into a tough-for-them matchup at Neville Arena and loses by 40. An Auburn team that blistered Alabama can struggle to do the exact same thing a few days later at Florida. The math doesn’t always account for that.
Now Auburn is a half-game back from Alabama with six to play in the SEC regular-season title race. Auburn, as I wrote earlier this week, has an easier finish to its schedule than Alabama, Tennessee or South Carolina. But danger is always lurking in the SEC, and the matchups will definitely matter down the stretch.
So let’s talk about those matchups, along with some more big Auburn basketball questions and some chatter about the recently re-confirmed college football video game, in this week’s mailbag.
It seems we match up better against teams with stronger backcourts than frontcourts. How do you see our matchups in our remaining games, in particular Kentucky and Tennessee?
Bonus question: I’ve gone back and watched the end of the first half of the Bama game a few times, not just the Jaylin windmill but the last defensive possession as well. Can you break down what KDJ did to frustrate Sears so effectively? It was an absolute clinic in defense.
Paul
We’ll start with Kentucky, which comes to town this Saturday for the massive College GameDay matchup. Kentucky has an unbelievably good offense, ranking in the top-10 nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover rate and 3-point field goal percentage. But the Wildcats have struggled on defense (No. 106 on KenPom) with a very low forced turnover rate and rebounding issues.
Kentucky is definitely stronger in the backcourt than up front. Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard and Antonio Reeves are all big-time shot-makers. D.J. Wagner is getting healthy again, and Justin Edwards has an incredibly high ceiling on the wing. Six of Kentucky’s top seven scorers are listed as guards on their roster.
Up front, multi-time transfer Tre Mitchell (averaging 11 PPG and 8 RPG in SEC play) is just getting back from an injury, and Ugonna Onyenso is a defense-first center. Croatian freshman 7-footer Zvonimir Ivisic made a big splash in his debut, but his minutes haven’t been consistent — he’s been a DNP in two of the last four games.
Auburn is going to have its hands full defensively against Kentucky’s guards. They might have their issues on defense, but the Wildcats have scored at least 85 points in four of their last five losses. They are constant threats. Auburn is going to have to really lock into a strong game plan on that end of the floor and weather some storms.
But, up front, I wonder how Kentucky will handle the combo of Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams, particularly if Mitchell is still working his way back to 100%. Kentucky reminds me more of Alabama and Ole Miss than, say, Florida and Mississippi State. I like this matchup for the Tigers if they’re able to get off to a good start and really challenge a young Kentucky team’s toughness in a hostile environment.
What about Tennessee? Like the Tigers, I think the Volunteers are incredibly balanced: They have elite production from a backcourt that includes scoring sensation Dalton Knecht and veteran point guard Zakai Zeigler, and their frontcourt has so much battle-tested experience with Jonas Aidoo and Josiah Jordan-James. The only real “weakness” in Tennessee’s numbers is, like Auburn, it has a tendency to foul a little too much. But you’ll trade that for one of the best defenses in the country.
Tennessee is more like Florida and Texas A&M — experience everywhere, with a balance between big-time backcourt play and plenty of frontcourt steel. Needless to say, that trip to Knoxville is going to be a tremendous challenge. It’s not impossible, but it’s hard to look at the Volunteers and see where they’ve got a clear-cut advantage. (And I would say the same about the flip side of the matchup. It looks like an even game on paper.)
Of the other four games, Mississippi State is definitely better up front than in the backcourt, as Auburn already knows. Josh Hubbard is a great wild card to have at guard, though, for a grit-and-grind team. Georgia is very guard-heavy and has struggled with inside play and rebounding. Missouri is the same way, but it has struggled with pretty much everything this season.
So, the matchups mostly favor Auburn down the stretch of the regular season. But games aren’t won on paper or the film room. The Tigers have to execute to take full advantage of these situations, especially in their home matchups. Do that, and they’ll have a chance to hang a banner.
Now, to answer your bonus question…