Aubserver Mailbag 159: What are Auburn's chances of a top-4 SEC finish?

This week: Round 1 opponents, shot quality, Chris Moore, Mustapha Heron, Under Armour, time machines and mac-and-cheese

C Johni Broome (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

Not saying AU's chances of winning regular season are gone, but definitely uphill at this point. Which seed in SEC tourney sets them up best to have best shot at winning SEC tourney and cutting down nets?

Randall

Since we’re changing things up in the mailbag this week by running on a Thursday instead of a Friday, let’s just jump right in with a question instead of a full-blown intro.

The SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament has been around since 1933. It’s gone through various forms over the years, but the tournament’s true modern era started in 1992 — when Arkansas and South Carolina joined the conference, expanding the league’s size from 10 to 12.

Every year since 1992, the top four teams in the SEC have received a bye to the quarterfinals of the tournament. This started as the top two teams in each division, East and West, and it stayed around after the conference did away with that structure in basketball.

Even after Missouri and Texas A&M expanded the conference to 14 teams, starting with the 2013 tournament, the base structure has remained the same: If you’re one of the four best teams in the league, you get a free pass to the final eight. Then, at that point, all you have to do is win three times to win a tournament title.

There have been 32 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournaments in this format. Auburn has only gotten a bye or a double-bye to the quarterfinals seven times: 1999, 2000, 2003, 2009, 2018, 2020* and 2022. (The 2020 tournament wasn’t played due to COVID, but Auburn was set to be the No. 2 seed that year.) That means the Tigers have finished in the top four less than 30% of the time.

While Auburn has immediately lost the last two times it’s started in the final eight of the SEC Tournament, getting a double-bye is a significant accomplishment and the best chance you’ve got of cutting down the nets.

Now, that might seem wrong for Auburn fans, considering the Tigers’ tournament run in 2019 came with them starting as the No. 5 seed. But since the league eliminated divisions in 2012, that Auburn team in 2019 is the only tournament winner that didn’t get a double-bye.

On top of that, the 2022 Texas A&M team that knocked out an SEC title-winning Auburn squad in the quarterfinals is the only other team without a double-bye that has even made it to the title game. Since 2012, the tournament has had twice as many chalk 1 vs. 2 finals (four) as non-top-eight teams crashing the party at all (two).

So, needless to say, the best path to cutting down the nets in Nashville is not having to play until Friday at the earliest. From there, it’s all about matchups: Auburn would probably want to play the likes of South Carolina and Ole Miss more than Florida and Mississippi State. But there’s not an easy out anywhere in this league, especially when you get down to the final few rounds of a tournament.

Of course, Auburn has to get there first. Speaking of which…

What would you give Auburn’s chances of finishing the regular season in the top 4 of the SEC? Currently sit in 3rd, but there are 8 teams within 2 games of them record-wise.

Craig

Even with the Kentucky loss, Auburn still has a solid chance of finishing in the top four in the league — largely because it has one of the most favorable paths on the board. Auburn is projected to be a favorite in four of its final five games of the regular season, with the lone exception being the road trip to Tennessee next week.

Now, we will see how much the injury to Jaylin Williams will affect the Tigers and when the fifth-year power forward could return. The trip to Georgia this Saturday will tell us a lot about what Auburn’s ceiling is without Williams for the time being.

Still, two of Auburn’s games are against a Georgia team that has lost a bunch recently, and it’s got a home rematch against a Mississippi State team that has only beaten last-place Missouri away from home. Additionally, Auburn gets to play that winless Missouri team — which gave Tennessee quite a scare this week but couldn’t get over the hump.

That’s a much more favorable finish than Kentucky, which still has to play Alabama and Tennessee, along with a trip to Mississippi State. Tennessee finishes with four straight Quad 1 games. Florida has another game with Alabama and a trip to South Carolina. SEC leader Alabama will have had five Quad 1 games in its final six.

KenPom and T-Rank both project Auburn to finish with a 13-5 record in SEC play, which feels right if it can avoid a letdown without Williams. (And that’s quite possible. That Mississippi State rematch won’t be a walk in the park, even at Neville Arena.) Auburn would finish No. 3 in the league in that scenario, with Tennessee holding a hypothetical tiebreaker.

Falling out of the top four would likely require Florida and Kentucky catching Auburn and holding the tiebreakers. Again, that’s possible with a letdown loss or a crazy run from both of those teams. The Tigers will have to take it one game at a time and truly treasure every win they get from here on out.

But Auburn had some scheduling stuff break favorably this season, contributing to a strong overall record. While that hasn’t been the best for the Quad 1 metrics, it could help the Tigers get a double-bye in Nashville when it’s all said and done.

HC Bruce Pearl (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

Who is Auburn's ideal NCAA R1 opponent?

joshdub