Mailbag 203: How does Johni Broome get back in rhythm?
This week: Sweet 16 battle of the bigs, Ole Miss vs. Sparty, March success, tag teams, GMs, uniforms and the All-Star Special
AUBURN — Welcome back to the mailbag.
It’s amazing what one game can do, isn’t it? The last time I wrote a mailbag, Auburn was coming off a loss to Texas A&M. The Tigers would lose three of their last four games and then follow it up with an underwhelming performance against Alabama State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Doubts were getting louder.
And then Auburn flipped the switch and beat Creighton, advancing to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019. These Tigers have gone further than anyone in the post-Final Four era for the program, and they have a chance to punch their own ticket there this weekend with two more wins in nearby Atlanta.
It won’t be easy, of course. Michigan will be quite the test on Friday night. But this Auburn team is in the best position to keep running in the Big Dance since the days of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown shooting that thing from way downtown. The Tigers are a deserved No. 1 overall seed and playing close to home. They earned this, and they looked the part with their second half in Lexington last Saturday.
With that in mind, let’s get to a special Sweet 16 version of the mailbag before things get going for Auburn later today with interviews and open practice in Atlanta.
Thanks as always for supporting the Observer and making it possible for us to cover this basketball program all over the country in what has been a historic season. We couldn’t do any of this without you.
Let’s go.
How does Johni get back in rhythm?
Captain Friendly
How does Coach Pearl address Johni's 3-point shooting?
Granted he hit two huge 3s against Alabama, but he's only shooting 17% over his last ten games (4-23). Teams are consistently leaving him wide-open and daring him to shoot.
Auburn has four excellent 3-point shooters in Denver, Miles, Chad and Tahaad, so his biggest value is getting buckets and drawing fouls in the paint.
He's had a green light, but will Coach Pearl dial that back now that the stakes are so high?
Frank
First of all, I wouldn’t overreact based on one tough offensive performance for Johni Broome. Yes, he went 4-13 from the field and 0-2 from the line in the win over Creighton. Some of that shooting performance has to do with the fact that he was facing a 7-foot-1 All-American and four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year in Ryan Kalkbrenner down low. Creighton has a top-15 2-point defense for a reason.
We’ll talk about Broome’s 3-point shooting here shortly, but it’s important to remember that he went 5-6 from 2 against Alabama State, 9-13 against Tennessee, 8-12 against Ole Miss and 13-24 against Alabama. Even with the Creighton performance, he’s shooting 61% from 2 and is averaging 20.4 points per game over his last five outings. Before Creighton, he had been in rhythm from 2.
According to CBB Analytics, Broome is shooting 78.2% at the rim over those last five games. That’s almost 10% better than his season-long mark there. When he’s getting deep touches, he’s actually doing better right now than he had been in the past. His paint 2-point percentage and mid-range 2-point percentage are also a little bit better over the last five games, compared to his season-long numbers.
The bigger issue is the 3-point shooting. Broome has gone 0-9 from deep since hitting a pair of monster triples against Alabama. He’s down to 26.5% from 3-point range on the season, compared to a strong 35.4% mark from last season. He’s been below 30% from downtown for most of the campaign, as there really isn’t any correlation between his shooting percentages before and after his injury issues.
When Broome is a threat to hit from 3-point range, it changes so much about Auburn’s offense. This is especially true when he’s in the game with Dylan Cardwell, as there are four jump-shooters on the floor instead of just three. (Chaney Johnson can make it a full five-for-five when he’s clicking.) There’s value in keeping defenses honest against Broome when he’s out on the perimeter.
The important distinction to make is the quality of the shots. Here’s a look back at all of Broome’s 3-point attempts in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament:
A pick-and-pop miss with 20 seconds left on the shot clock, but Cardwell got the offensive rebound and kicked it back to Broome to draw a foul
A contested miss with 18 seconds left on the shot clock, after Auburn beat the trap and kicked it out to him (Alabama State recovered well to challenge it)
Another pick-and-pop miss with 20 seconds left on the shot clock
Another pick-and-pop miss with 20 seconds left on the shot clock
A miss after a DHO with 10 seconds left on the shot clock, after seeing that Kalkbrenner was playing way off of him
A kick-out miss with 18 seconds left on the shot clock
A pick-and-pop miss with 5 seconds left on the shot clock
The first three misses all came in the first half against Alabama State, and Broome didn’t attempt one in the second half of that game. There were two Creighton misses in each half. All but one of these shots were wide-open, too.
The later-in-the-shot-clock misses are completely acceptable shots. Creighton was backing off of him, and Auburn needed to get shots up. The ones that were tougher were the pick-and-pop misses early in the shot clock, as he never got in rhythm with those in either match. The contested miss was tough, because he had plenty of time to either attack off the dribble or pass it again.
Bruce Pearl wants Broome to shoot most of those shots. He might want him to work for a better one on some of them, but you don’t want to play the results too much. The shots were open, and he’s shown the ability to hit them in the past. Hitting them can change what a defense does, particularly when it’s parking a center like Kalkbrenner in the paint all night long.
I don’t think Pearl will tell Broome not to take any open 3s if he gets them — nor should he. Broome is also a mature enough player to not keep hunting them when they’re not falling, as evidenced by the inside-focused game in the second half against Alabama State and the higher-quality looks against Creighton.
Broome has been good closer to the basket in recent games, especially when you compare it to his work on his longer-distance shots. Kalkbrenner won’t always be down there to challenge him, but it’s also worth noting that Michigan runs a lineup of two 7-footers and also has a top-15 2-point defense because of it.
If Broome doesn’t have a monster day on offense against Michigan, don’t be surprised. Auburn has plenty of firepower to overcome that, as it showed against Creighton. And, because of that matchup in the frontcourt, it might help Broome to be able to hit from downtown once or twice.
The light doesn’t need to be the brightest green, but it also doesn’t need to be red. Maybe a nice yellow would work best for Broome, who has shown the ability to get back going from close range in a hurry this season. Pearl wants his players to play with freedom, so don’t expect him to completely turn things off for his All-American.
Pretending we know a thing about strategy and scheming, would you send AU guards into the paint to draw fouls from UM’s bigs? Get them teetering on foul trouble to help decide the game? Let’s be honest, Broome ain’t going to the foul line much, if history is a judge.
Kevin