Two areas Auburn must improve for the Final Four rematch vs. Florida
If the Tigers can tighten up these two major weaknesses from their first game vs. the Gators, they could get some sweet revenge in San Antonio.
SAN ANTONIO — Bruce Pearl saw this coming.
Shortly after Auburn’s February 8 loss to Florida — which snapped what was then a 14-game winning streak that had propelled the Tigers to No. 1 in the country for several weeks — Pearl correctly identified what kind of team his former assistant Todd Golden had on his hands.
“If I would redo a few things, I don't know that I made or had our team understand how important this game was to Florida, in the sense that Florida could be a Final Four team,” Pearl said following Auburn’s 90-81 loss.
Fast forward nearly two months, and Pearl’s words have proven prophetic. Both the best and hottest teams in the SEC at season’s end are now on a collision course for a high-stakes rematch inside the Alamodome on Saturday — winner plays for a national championship.
Auburn rebounded impressively from that February loss, going on a six-game winning streak that included a No. 1 vs. No. 2 road win at Alabama and a historic, SEC outright title-clinching victory at Kentucky. A late stumble — dropping three of their last four games heading into the NCAA Tournament — raised some concerns, but the Tigers steadied the ship again and knocked out the Big Ten’s two best programs in three days in Atlanta to get here.
Florida has only lost once in its last 17 games, and it nearly pulled off the comeback in that defeat. The Gators lit up the scoreboard in their last six SEC games, including a dominant run to the conference tournament title, to cash in as the final No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. Florida’s resilience has been tested in this tournament. They found themselves down six with nine minutes left against UConn and down 10 with a little more than three minutes left against Texas Tech — and gutted out wins to advance.
Together with Duke and Houston, Auburn and Florida have both been clearly in a tier above the rest of college basketball for a while now. The proof? A historic, all-No. 1 seed Final Four — the first since 2008. A chalk-heavy tournament meant that Auburn and Florida were bound to cross paths again.
For Auburn, this season has been defined by dominance. The Tigers have set a new program record with 32 wins, suffering just five losses — four of them against Elite Eight teams. Notably, they’ve also beaten three teams that reached that stage, including fellow Final Four contender Houston.
There was absolutely no shame in losing to Florida, as evidenced by the Gators’ status as the single-hottest team entering this NCAA Tournament. There’s a reason why Florida is a slight favorite over No. 1 overall seed Auburn on Saturday, and it’s not just because it won the previous head-to-head matchup.
This has been one of the very best teams in the country for quite some time, and Auburn knew that from the moment they clashed in Neville Arena.
“I just think, my reaction is pretty much the same: Just give Florida credit,” Pearl said two days after the loss. “I mean, Florida played outstanding. They played like a Final Four team. I told you guys in advance, I thought they were a team that would be one of the four teams that get a bye in the SEC Tournament.
“When you say that, it's like saying they're a Final Four team right now, this year. I reserved that, because I didn't want to speak to other teams in the country. I felt like ranking them just among teams in our league, to sort of separate them. And they clearly separated themselves by beating us here in Neville.”
Both Auburn and Florida have played plenty of basketball since they last met, but looking back at that game is essential. It reveals what went wrong for Auburn at home, what Florida was able to exploit, and what lessons need to be learned heading into this Final Four showdown.
Fittingly, Auburn’s championship hopes hinge on the same formula that got them through Atlanta — defense.
Since the second round, Auburn has had a top-five defense on Torvik. That’s just two spots behind Houston, the nation’s top defense virtually from beginning to end this season. And there’s a decent gap between those two and their Final Four opponents, Duke and Florida.
That defensive edge has carried Auburn through tough shooting nights. In the Sweet 16, Auburn shot just 28.6% from deep, turned the ball over 15 times and still overcame a nine-point second-half deficit to beat Michigan by 13. In the Elite Eight, Auburn shot an even worse 28% from deep, only had one player score more than 10 points and still controlled the entire game to eliminate Michigan State.
Auburn is in the Final Four this weekend because of its defense, even in a season that has been largely defined by the eye-popping efficiency of its offense through National Player of the Year winner Johni Broome and a deep roster of scorers.
And, if you look at Auburn’s five losses this season, defense has been the difference. Auburn is 4-5 this season when an opponent’s offensive efficiency is better than 113, and its three worst performances in that category all resulted in losses.
One of those losses was Florida. The Gators torched Auburn’s defense, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 58.6% — the highest mark posted against the Tigers all season.
Though there was a struggle at the free throw line and a few rare misses at the rim, Auburn’s offense wasn’t the issue that night. 81 points is usually (and should be) more than enough to win. In terms of efficiency, Auburn has won seven games this season with worse numbers than what it put up against Florida — including its last two victories over Michigan and Michigan State.
Giving up 90 points in regulation, though, will get you beat almost every single time.
So, what can Auburn learn from that defensive performance back in February?
A deep dive into the film highlights two glaring areas where the Tigers struggled most. If Auburn wants to avenge its loss and play for a national championship for the first time in program history, they have to improve in these two critical “Ts.”