Mailbag 206: What's the ceiling (and floor) for Auburn football in 2025?
This week: Hugh Freeze's offense, NFL Draft prospects, Chad Baker-Mazara, Jabari Smith, Jackson Koivun and your favorite concerts
AUBURN — This mailbag is about facing the music, somewhat literally.
You asked about expectations for Auburn football heading into a crucial season for Hugh Freeze, with a special focus toward the offensive side of the ball after years of struggle there. You also asked about the hype surrounding some potential NFL Draft picks on what should be an improved roster for the fall.
Elsewhere, you asked about Auburn basketball’s reloading roster, Chad Baker-Mazara’s transfer to USC, Jabari Smith in the NBA and what exactly happens when teams huddle up before free throws. We’ve also got questions about Star Wars, Destin restaurants and fighting one of the scariest men on the planet.
And you also gave me some fun answers for my question to you this week: What is your all-time favorite concert? We dig into your picks — which span a wide range of music tastes — and I share a few of my personal favorites.
Thanks as always for reading, listening and participating, especially here in the offseason. This would be a time where I would have to scramble to find things to discuss, but y’all always deliver.
Let’s go.
Getting ready to let Auburn Football emotionally ruin me again. All we’ve heard this offseason is “potential.”
So I gotta ask: What’s the floor for Auburn this year? And realistically — what’s the ceiling? 9 wins? 10? National title parade down College Street? (I’m already too far gone.)
Concert: Timmy Childers, Nashville
GMC
Let me start my answer by consulting the early SP+ projections for the 2025 season. According to the numbers from the great Bill Connelly at ESPN, here is the breakdown of Auburn’s most probable records for the upcoming season:
7-5: 27.14%
8-4: 22.57%
6-6: 20.81%
9-3: 11.93%
5-7: 9.89%
10-2 or better: 4.60%
4-8 or worse: 3.07%
Remember how I said last week that Auburn’s Vegas win total of 7.5 was a perfect number?
SP+ says Auburn has a 12.96% chance of going 5-7 or worse and finishing with a fifth straight losing season. It bumps up to 33.76% when you throw in a potential 6-6 finish, which could open the trapdoor of below .500 with a bowl loss, like 2023.
The numbers say that Auburn is more likely to finish with a guaranteed winning record. But, make no mistake: The floor is a fifth straight losing season.
Now, some people might read that and think otherwise. They might point to the improved roster, the new quarterback situation, the schedule, etc. And, yes, those are fine reasons to think Auburn will take a step forward in 2025. I can see the potential in all of them. If I had to make a prediction, I would say the Tigers win more games than they lose this fall.
However, Auburn was in a similar spot last season, with more talent and a Year 1 or Year 0 or Year 0.5 — whatever you want to call it — under Freeze’s belt. The schedule was pretty favorable on the front end, with five straight home games, including two Power 5 matchups against teams it beat on the road in 2023.
And Auburn went 2-3 in that stretch, followed by a pair of road losses to Georgia and Missouri to get to 2-5. The Tigers were in good-to-great positions to win four of those losses, too. They just couldn’t get it done.
It was a reminder that games aren’t played on paper, and nothing is official until the clock hits all zeroes. While Auburn got a much-needed win over Kentucky on the road and later upset Texas A&M in a marathon thriller, it also scored just seven points in a home loss to Vanderbilt — by far the least talented roster in the conference.
So, while there are several reasons to believe that Auburn can avoid yet another losing season in 2025, we just watched this same team under the same head coach miss out on several chances to avoid that last season. Now, this fall, it doesn’t get that home-heavy start. Instead, it has to go to Baylor, Texas A&M and Oklahoma in the first five weeks. If Auburn can’t survive that early stretch, things could get rough around here.
This is a tossup-heavy schedule, as far as SP+ is concerned. Auburn would be considered a slight road favorite over Baylor (53.75%), a slight home underdog to Missouri (47.42%) and a slight road favorite over Arkansas (53.28%). Then there’s the challenge of Oklahoma on the road (41.84%) — and the two games against Kentucky (68.52%) and Vanderbilt (67.78%) aren’t layups at all.
That’s half of Auburn’s schedule sitting between 41% and 68% in terms of win probability. Then you’ve got three paycheck home games, followed by three tough matchups at Texas A&M (30.03%) and home against Georgia (28.02%) and Alabama (24.94%).
It’s easy to see the floor: Auburn gets those three paycheck home wins and only snags a couple of conference games in a flipped schedule. Barring a sweep over Georgia and Alabama at home, the Tigers are going to have to beat quality teams on the road in order to get above .500 this season. They can do that, but the last two seasons have shown that it’s far from a stone-cold lock.
But here’s the ceiling: Auburn gets those easier-looking wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt, along with the three paycheck victories. Now you’re in a situation where just splitting the remaining toss-ups gets you to seven wins, and an upset puts you at eight. Going above .500 in the toss-ups and/or pulling off multiple upsets can get you to nine wins without any wild preseason speculation.
Here’s another thing to consider: Auburn went 1-5 last season in games decided by 10 points or less. Football analytics will tell you that’s often usually prime territory for a team to bounce back the following season. That might not mean 5-1, especially considering the one close win was a home one against a strong opponent. But the numbers say there should be an improvement in the tight ones. (Should.)
It’s early and a lot will change, but the SP+ projections like Auburn to go 8-4 or better more than they like them to go 6-6 or worse. The talent acquisition and retention from Freeze and his staff are important. The Tigers should be in a better position to do what they couldn’t do several times last season, and we know that a quality Auburn team is capable of upset magic inside Jordan-Hare Stadium.
A realistic ceiling for Auburn is eight wins, bumping up to nine if everything falls into place on offense. A realistic floor is more of what we’ve seen over the last four years.
As for the concert pick: I’m going to be honest, I had to look up if Timmy Childers was just someone who had a similar name to Tyler Childers. Country and country-adjacent music usually aren’t my thing, but I will say that what I’ve heard from Childers a) is the type of stuff I would like if I listened to that genre and b) makes me think that he would put on a fantastic show, especially in Nashville.
Auburn is rolling with the same offensive staff, essentially saying that last year’s woes were on Thorne and the OL. What if the offense looks largely the same, plodding and inept? Freeze already cycled his coordinators after Year 1.
Best concert was Tool at Oak Mtn in 2001 — the same night Damon Duval kicked the game-winner to beat Florida. It poured rain almost the entire show from a tropical storm… so much rain that my shoes were ruined, but the music was awesome and the rain made for a unique experience.
Matt