Mailbag 219: What's the early read on Jackson Arnold?
This week: Offensive strategy for the next two weeks, defensive issues, "Varsity Blue Chips," SEC-to-Premier League picks and Letterman
AUBURN — Welcome back to the mailbag. Unlike last week, we’re not kicking off an Auburn football game day with this one.
Instead, we’re kicking off an Auburn football home weekend.
It’s good to have those back, right? The vibes are positive after a road win at Baylor. Auburn has a long way to go to prove that this year is going to be different, but you can’t come out of Week 1 and not feel at least a little more optimistic about the future — especially with everything that happened elsewhere last weekend.
Seeing the tailgating setups go up and hearing people talk about their weekend plans always reminds me of how excited I got for an Auburn football home game when I was growing up. Our family didn’t have the money to go to many, but we always wanted to hit at least one.
I think about that for games like these. Yes, Auburn being favored by 40-plus against Ball State doesn’t make for compelling television. But these are also games that kids like me got a chance to go to, and I’m sure there are going to be plenty of those watching the spectacle that is Auburn football on Saturday night in Jordan-Hare.
With those good feelings in mind, let’s get to this week’s ‘bag. You asked about Auburn’s offense after a run-heavy, workmanlike win, the defensive issues and the snap counts from Week 1. You also did an insane amount of research for a question, looked for game weekend food suggestions and asked for SEC-to-Premier League comparisons.
There’s no other way I would want to spend the start of an Auburn game weekend. Let’s go.
The passing sample size from Jackson was small but, I thought, pretty well-executed, especially with the safety situation Baylor had. He also made good decisions when he did run.
Do you think this translates to bigger games like at OU and TAMU?
Sam
I think Auburn fans have to be encouraged by what Jackson Arnold showed in his debut last Friday night. When you do things that only Nick Marshall and Cam Newton have done recently — run for that many yards as a quarterback and go 100/100 in your first game, respectively — you’re already in pretty great company.
One of the things I talked about a lot before the Baylor game was that Arnold didn’t need to be Superman in order for Auburn to have success on offense. Baylor’s defense got into shootout mode too much last season and had real question marks up front. The injuries, both before and during Week 1, only put more strain on the Bears.
More importantly, Auburn’s best-looking offense in the preseason came when Arnold was getting the ball out of his hands quickly, making the right reads and playing off of the running game. When you can throw the ball to a Cam Coleman or an Eric Singleton Jr., you don’t have to do too much. Because of the threat of the weapons the Tigers have, someone or something is going to be open.
Arnold had to get an A grade on his decision-making against Baylor. It wasn’t perfect, but you’re not going to find a quarterback who goes 100% on those away from home, particularly in his debut. He just took what the defense gave him, over and over again, and it led to a two-touchdown win against a bowl team on the road. Auburn hasn’t had many of those recently, so that’s significant in and of itself.
The running game was where he did most of his damage, but go back to some of the throws he made. When Auburn absolutely needed a spark early, he layered a tough ball into Malcolm Simmons in the slot for the first down to overcome a pair of false start penalties. That led to the first touchdown. And, when Auburn absolutely needed to melt the clock in the fourth quarter, he hit Horatio Fields on a great timing play to move the chains and get that touchdown drive truly going.
For Arnold, it was more about poise and command last Friday night than athleticism or arm talent — although he showcased those, too. He made the right decisions, rarely put the ball in danger and showed he wanted the ball in his hands in critical situations. Forget the style points and the explosive pass plays. Auburn got plenty of those at times last year. But the Tigers didn’t get enough wins, and the stuff that Arnold showed in Week 1 was a noticeable change from the recent past.
And, yes, it’s just one game. It’s one game against what I would call one of the lower-tier defenses in major conference football. It’s one game against a team that absolutely refused to change its two-high safety philosophy and paid for that dearly by getting the ball crammed down its throat all night. Guess what? It’s not going to be that easy against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, but you knew that already.
Auburn is going to have to be able to throw the ball downfield regularly to beat teams like Oklahoma and Texas A&M. The defenses are going to be smarter, faster and more talented in those games. The room and the opportunities Arnold had on the ground against Baylor might not be as plentiful. You can’t expect the Tigers to be able to stick to that same formula from Week 1 all season long. In fact, they’re just naturally going to want to throw it more anyway.
“All of us are anxious to see if we can throw and run the right routes and be on time and be effective in that, because you’re going to have to have that,” Hugh Freeze said Thursday after practice. “We’re obviously confident in the receivers’ ability, but it’s not just about ability. It’s about is being on the same page, the same timing and us protecting and all of those things that come with it.”
Sure, Auburn fans would have been more thrilled if Arnold came out against Baylor and put up fantastic passing stats. There will be plenty clamoring for that against Ball State this weekend, and I get that. The players want that, too.
But, again, it’s the decision-making from Arnold in his first game that really stood out. If that’s a strong suit of his, it will serve him well against the wide variety of defenses he’ll face in the SEC this season. That, to me, is what should translate more the rest of the way than if he just chunked the ball around the yard against a bad Big 12 defense.
Hi Ferg. I hope it’s okay to call you Ferg.
Do you think Hugh keeps the game plan for the next two weeks pretty vanilla as to not put much on tape for Oklahoma and TAMU, or does he make a concerted effort to get the receivers involved by opening up the passing game before we open SEC play?
Ryan