Mailbag 223: How good is Auburn's defense, really?
This week: Hugh Freeze's offense, QB changes, looking ahead to UGA, Kevin Overton, Elyjah Freeman, basketball goals and dream shows
AUBURN — Welcome to the first mailbag of October, which can only mean one thing.
It’s time to really start pulling double duty around here.
Dedicating an outlet to covering two sports — Auburn basketball and Auburn football — isn’t tough. Most of my colleagues on the beat cover even more, and they do a great job of it. But it’s a lot of work.
The overlap between basketball starting up and football in the middle of the season always makes for entertaining mailbags. This week, you asked a lot about the direction of the football team under Hugh Freeze, particularly on offense. You also asked about basketball’s still-intact roster and who might play where this season.
But we’re going to start with a spotlight on an area that, quite frankly, has not gotten much attention around here lately. Let’s talk about Auburn football’s defense, shall we?
Is the defense actually any good? We’re giving up a ton of yards, bend-don’t-break style. Or does it just look good compared to the trash heap that is our offense?
Bitter Aubie
It’s a good defense. Oklahoma and Texas A&M have been in the negative double-digits in offensive EPA over the last two weeks. You don’t get that without making plays on defense. But I would caution against calling it great at this point.
The standard stats show a real bend-don’t-break type of defense. In power-conference matchups, Auburn is allowing nearly six yards per game. But the Tigers are only giving up 21.3 points per game in those contests, which is No. 21 overall and No. 6 among teams that have played at least three power-conference opponents.
SP+, which adjusts for opponent strength, has Auburn down as having the No. 15 defense in the country right now. According to Game On Paper, Auburn is No. 29 nationally in adjusted EPA per play on defense.
The Tigers might be giving up chunks of yardage — especially through the air — but they’re in the top 20 in both third-down defense and preventing touchdowns on red-zone trips. CFB Graphs has Auburn at No. 11 in points allowed per quality drive. And, in terms of standard EPA, Auburn is still one of the best teams in the country against the run. Offenses are having a hard time sustaining drives on the Tigers.
Personally, I think that when you’re playing three quality offenses away from home like Auburn has faced, you can’t be expected to be dominant on defense. You’re just going to give up yards. That’s modern football. What’s more important is your ability to get off the field when you force third downs and limit scoring overall, especially when the opponent gets inside your territory. Auburn has done that to this point.
It’s honestly a quality defense to have against the type of opponents Auburn plays this season. There’s plenty of stuff that can be improved, and the Tigers can’t survive longterm giving up easy yards through the air. But this defensive approach just needs to be paired with a good offense. And, well, we haven’t seen that in several weeks.
The most important defensive number is what’s on the scoreboard. Auburn hasn’t allowed more than 24 points all season, and the second time that happened, the other team needed a special teams disaster and an illegal play to get to that many.
No, this isn’t a dominant defense that will have you thinking back to the Pat Dye days. It’s more than enough to beat quality opponents, though. The other side of the ball just hasn’t held up its end of the bargain since Week 1.
With the consistent lack of tailoring the offense to the skills of the personnel and underperforming on that side of the ball, Coach Freeze has lost the support of many fans. Can you make an argument for why we should keep him and expect to be better in the future?
BBD