Film Room: Why Auburn might be able to bring out the best in Payton Thorne

The Tigers' new QB had a great 2021 and an OK 2022. And the difference in those two years says a lot about his potential in 2023.

QB Payton Thorne (@AuburnFootball/Twitter)

Let’s consider two hypothetical quarterbacks in the transfer portal.

Quarterback A went 12-1 in 13 starts. He averaged 8.91 yards per attempt, which would have put him in the top 10 nationally in that very important stat category. Quarterback A had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3-to-1 during those games, and he was a solid 63% passer.

Quarterback B, on the other hand, went 5-7 in 12 starts. He only averaged 6.36 yards per attempt, a number that would put him just inside the top 100 of qualified quarterbacks in the FBS last season. He had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 1.7, and he hovered just at 60% with his completion percentage.

Everyone would take Quarterback A, right? He would be a transfer who got fans extremely excited about the offense for the upcoming fall. Quarterback B would be viewed as a work-in-progress who wasn’t a clear-cut upgrade from what a team like Auburn currently has.

Well, here’s the thing: Quarterback A is new Auburn transfer Payton Thorne during the games in which Michigan State rushed for at least 150 yards. Quarterback B is Thorne during the games in which the Spartans fell below that mark.

The story of Thorne at Michigan State can easily be split into the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

In 2021, Thorne helped lead the Spartans to a surprising 11-2 record and a New Year’s Six bowl win while breaking the school record for most passing touchdowns in a season.

(By the way, Thorne’s 27 passing touchdowns in 2021 would rank second all-time at Auburn, only behind Cam Newton’s 30 in 2010. The current No. 2 is Chris Todd, who had 22 in 2009. And Thorne’s 3,232 passing yards would also be No. 2 in Auburn history, trailing only Dameyune Craig in 1997.)

In 2022, Thorne’s numbers weren’t nearly as good as Michigan State fell down to a 5-7 record — and one that prompted Spartans head coach Mel Tucker to open the starting quarterback battle back up for 2023.

But the split that tells a better story is what Thorne was like as a quarterback when he had a strong running game next to him, and when he did not.

Now, most of the “did not” happened in the 2022 season, when Michigan State no longer had All-American and Doak Walker Award-winning running back Kenneth Walker III. Michigan State also lost 136 career starts on its offensive line from that 2021 season, having to rebuild a front that only had five healthy linemen in fall camp.

Michigan State averaged only 113 rushing yards per game last season, which ranked 111th nationally. On a per-carry basis, the Spartans were tied for 89th in the FBS. After rushing for at least 180 yards in a majority of their games in the 2021 season, they only hit that mark four times in 2022.

Unsurprisingly, those were among Thorne’s best games. He had 233 yards with four touchdowns in a season-opening win over Western Michigan. He also had 256 yards with a pair of touchdowns through the air against Rutgers, then nearly got to 300 yards with two more touchdowns a week later in a win over Indiana.

Back in 2021, Thorne put up big numbers when Walker and the Spartans’ ground game was rolling. He had 261 yards and four touchdowns in a road win over Miami, and later followed it up with back-to-back games of 325-plus yards against Western Kentucky and Rutgers. In November, he combined for 831 passing yards and eight touchdowns across three games against Purdue, Maryland and Penn State.

There are exceptions to these trends, of course. Thorne lit up Washington for 323 yards in a 2022 loss where he had to carry the offense through the air, and he was also excellent in a 2022 win over Wisconsin — 21-28 for 265 and two touchdowns.

When Walker opted out of the 2021 Peach Bowl, Thorne threw for 354 yards and three touchdowns in a comeback win over Pitt. He also struggled against Michigan in 2021, despite a great game from Walker on the ground.

But the vast majority of Thorne’s top performances at Michigan State came with a strong running game next to him, and the vast majority of his weaker ones came without it.

And that’s where the 2023 Auburn Tigers come into the picture.