Mailbag 214: What position group needs to improve the most?

This week: Wild card positions, the Baylor game, SEC Media Days reps, Two Bits, EA's CBB game, hot dogs and underrated vacation spots

(Austin Perryman/Auburn Tigers)

AUBURN — Happy Fourth of July, and thanks for spending part of it with The Auburn Observer.

The schedule this week, with me coming back from vacation and Auburn having an Ambush event on Wednesday night, meant we had to push the mailbag back to its traditional Friday slot. While that might not be the best programming decision because of the holiday, I hope you’ll take some of your free time to check this out.

Once again, we’ve got a lot to cover and a short time to do it — especially with the holiday attention spans. We’re going to jump right in here.

My question to you this week was this: What city or area of the country do you think is an underrated vacation destination?

Thanks as always for supporting what we do here at The Observer. Let’s go.

Brussels and Vienna are low-key the best cities in Europe to visit and are never ranked number one on any list, because people are stupid.

What position group needs to make the biggest jump during the season for Auburn football to win nine games? Thanks, I’ll hang up and listen.

Crow

The easy answer to Crow’s question is the quarterback position. It’s been talked about so much during the streak of losing seasons, but it’s worth repeating here: The biggest thing that has held Auburn back from truly contending again has been its ability to succeed through the air. It’s tough to win in modern college football without an efficient and explosive passing game.

Here’s where it gets tricky for the Tigers: Last season, Payton Thorne had the fifth-most yards for any Auburn quarterback. KeAndre Lambert-Smith was a revelation. Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons both burst onto the scene as freshmen. Auburn finished tied for No. 10 nationally in passing yards per attempt (8.6) and had more passing touchdowns (27) than it had in any season since winning it all in 2010.

But Auburn still went 5-7. What gives? For starters, more than half of those passing touchdowns came against Alabama A&M, New Mexico and ULM. If you look at games against power-conference teams alone, Auburn was tied for No. 31 nationally in yards per attempt (7.8) and threw for more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (12).

Yards can be empty stats. What matters more is how efficient you are with your opportunities through the air and how successful you are at actually putting points on the scoreboard. Auburn was No. 81 nationally in scoring against power-conference opponents and No. 102 in red-zone touchdown percentage in those same games.

So, what’s a statistic that tells a better story of Auburn’s quarterback play? It’s not perfect, but take a look at quarterback rating in the actually competitive games. It combines completion percentage, yardage, touchdowns and interceptions into one formula. You can excel at one of those (like yardage or accuracy), yet your quarterback rating will be lower if you’re not scoring and throwing interceptions.

Last season, Auburn ranked No. 11 out of 16 SEC teams in quarterback rating against power-conference opponents. Why does that matter? Auburn hasn’t finished in the top half of the conference in that category since 2019, which just so happens to be the last time the team won Crow’s target goal of nine games. It had a three-year streak of being in the top half from 2017 to 2019, with the Tigers being No. 2 in that area during the SEC West-winning 2017 season.

If you look at the last three seasons of SEC football, there have been 19 different teams that have won nine or more games. Of those 19 teams, 15 of them — the vast majority — finished in the top half of the league in quarterback rating against power-conference opponents. And, in all three of those seasons, the teams that finished in the top three of the SEC in that category all won nine or more games.

It’s common sense at this point, but Auburn needs better quarterback play if it wants to take the step forward this season. Thorne got some big passing numbers last season, yet they didn’t truly matter much, because the Tigers were so unsuccessful at turning them into points.

Jackson Arnold had his fair share of struggles at Oklahoma last season. However, he’s a more natural fit for Freeze’s offense and, as I’ve pointed out this offseason, he was No. 9 in the FBS last season in quarterback rating in the red zone. Arnold is also more of a threat to run the ball and make it a true 11-on-11 game in scoring range.

Of course, Auburn’s offense all has to work together in order to be successful. But I don’t think the running back room has to improve the most, because it’s likely going to take a natural step back without Jarquez Hunter. Last season was a perfect example of increased wide receiver play not equaling more wins. The offensive line is a close second as the right answer to Crow’s question. Still, I believe quarterback efficiency has been a much more consistent barometer of success in the SEC.

If Auburn can get better quarterback play this season, it could take a good-sized jump in terms of win total. Improvement in that area last year — specifically in the form of finishing drives with touchdowns and taking care of the ball — would have gone a long way in the Tigers turning around those easily winnable games against the likes of Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, etc.

Freeze was hired, in part, to help Auburn get the quarterback play to championship-caliber levels again. It’s on him, Kent Austin and Derrick Nix to find the right fixes for this offense in 2025 at the most important position on the field. Do that, and there’s room for serious improvement. Without it, this could be another tough season.

Vacation Spots: Well, we’re starting this off quite aggressively, aren’t we? One of the only European cities I’ve visited and can vouch for will come up later in this mailbag. My only experience with Brussels or Vienna is playing with teams from there on old FIFA career modes. But everything I’ve seen and heard about them look incredible. I could easily see them being better than the more mainstream European cities.

(Austin Perryman/Auburn Tigers)

I think offense comes down to OL play. Defense probably depends on LB. Where do you think the biggest surprise comes from? Any of these positions or something out of left field?

You can't go wrong anywhere in the Rockies. From New Mexico to Canada, the area offers everything you need to enjoy creation... though I remain loyal to off the beaten path places in Montana and Wyoming. Belfry, Montana anyone? Home of the Bats.

Bandit