Mailbag 182: Where does Auburn football go from here?
This week: Brown vs. Thorne, Freeze's comments, Year 2 regression, bowl hopes, DT rotation, positives, basketball hype and replacing Woj
(Grayson Belanger/Auburn Tigers)
This would be a good week for a long, well thought-out introduction about how Auburn football is heading into yet another pressure-packed weekend under Hugh Freeze, with frustrations building and a football season feeling like it’s heading to a crossroads already.
Then I get done answering everybody’s questions, and this thing is nearly at 5,000 words.
We’ll save the preambles for another day. You asked about what Auburn football can do to turn around its season — in a number of areas — while also fueling up the hype train for a basketball team that returned to practice this week.
Thank you, as always, for continuing to support The Auburn Observer. Let’s go.
Excluding interceptions, under which QB is the offense performing best in terms of completion percentage, time of possession, yards per play, and any other stats that would provide an objective POV? Both QBs have been turnover machines, so that can't be the deciding factor.
Alan
Am I crazy, or did Auburn seem to move the ball better with Brown? I know Auburn scored 0 in the first half and Hank had 3(!) interceptions. And I know Auburn scored 14 in the second half led by Thorne, and Thorne only had one interception that really wasn't his fault.
But a lot of Thorne's production felt rather flukey. Those first several drives just felt mired in mud. I understand wanting a veteran QB out there, and I get pulling a redshirt freshman after he throws 3 interceptions in a half, but moving forward, I'd rather see Brown out there. It's not like we haven't seen Thorne throw multiple bad interceptions in a game, and Brown is young and, theoretically, has a lot more room for growth. Thorne is a 5th-year senior who will graduate after this season. We know who he is.
Secondly, what do you make about Freeze's post-game comments and Bo Wallace's comments? How do people around the team view Freeze? Is this just blown out of proportion, or are there any frustrations about whether Freeze is loyal to his players?
Bonus question: In honor of Auburn's 14 total turnovers, what is your favorite kind of turnover? I'm partial to a good cherry turnover.
Wolf
This is going to sound like a cop-out when I say this, but I don’t think you can objectively decide what the best option is between Payton Thorne and Hank Brown at this point in the season. That’s because the sample sizes for the two of them are nowhere near the same.
Here are the overall numbers so far for drives quarterbacked by Thorne and Brown:
Thorne: 80 points in 29 drives (2.76), 978 yards in 125 plays (7.82)
Brown: 59 points in 12 drives (4.92), 770 yards in 93 plays (8.28)
Now, you might be thinking, “Well, this clearly favors Brown. What are you talking about, math boy?” While this is true, it’s also tough to figure out how much stock you can put in the blowout wins over a bad FCS team (Alabama A&M) and the worst FBS defense (New Mexico).
What if you just look at numbers from the Cal and Arkansas games? You’re going to have to ignore the fact Brown didn’t play at all against Cal, but here:
Thorne: 28 points in 20 drives (1.4), 542 yards in 93 plays (5.83)
Brown: 0 points in 6 drives (0), 173 yards in 25 plays (6.42)
If you limited it to the only time Thorne and Brown both played in the same non-blowout game, you’d get 14 points in 7 drives (2.00) and 258 yards in 36 plays (7.17) for Thorne… and the same 0 and 6.42 numbers for Brown, obviously.
Individually, Thorne is completing 55.1% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt and a quarterback rating of 119.69 against power-conference opponents this season. In the first half against Arkansas, Brown completed 53.8% of his passes for 5.5 yards per attempt and a quarterback rating of 54.22. Granted, that’s six quarters versus two. It’s also worth noting that Auburn has run the ball fairly well with both quarterbacks.
Again, it’s not an even comparison. Against Alabama A&M, Thorne got nine drives. Brown got two, with the offense scoring twice in a total of eight plays. Outside of each one playing a half against Arkansas, the sample sizes are just too different.
Auburn created three scoring opportunities on six chances against Arkansas with Brown at quarterback. It just didn’t finish a single one of them. Auburn created two scoring opportunities on six chances against Arkansas with Thorne at quarterback. It scored touchdowns on both of them. (You could argue it was three in seven, depending on your feelings on that last garbage-time drive. More on that later.)
That’s why the quarterback decision moving forward for Freeze and his staff is deeper than just the stats we’ve seen so far. They’ve reviewed, charted and graded every single play for both Brown and Thorne this season. They’re evaluating the totality of their body of work, based on the play calls — which we obviously don’t know.
On top of that, you have to look at how each quarterback is performing this week in practice. Given the game plan for Oklahoma, who gives Auburn the best chance to succeed?
That’s the main priority. I get that many Auburn fans, like Wolf here, will point to Brown’s youth and Thorne’s expiring eligibility and say, “Go with the kid.” That makes plenty of sense. But when you’re in a situation where you’ve already lost two home games as a favorite and you haven’t even gotten to the brutal stretch of your schedule yet, you just need to win football games, by any means necessary.
Yes, Auburn moved the ball with Brown at quarterback. But, if it can’t finish drives, those are just empty calories on offense. Likewise, if Auburn is going to continue to be massively inefficient against quality competition with Thorne at quarterback, there might not be much use in sticking with someone who won’t be here next year.
Again, I’m not trying to cop-out of an answer. I just want to point out that the decision between Brown and Thorne goes deeper than what we’ve seen on Saturdays so far, partly because their opportunities have not been equal. It’s a tough call to make, but that’s why Freeze and his staff get paid the big bucks from Auburn.
Now, let’s continue with the rest of Wolf’s questions.