Five keys to a potential Auburn upset of No. 1 Houston on Sunday
Can the Tigers pull off a bigger surprise win against college basketball's most consistent powerhouse? Here's how it could go down.
AUBURN — When Steven Pearl was named Auburn’s new head coach, he got countless messages on social media from people all over the basketball world.
He publicly replied to just one: A message from Houston’s Kelvin Sampson.
“Steven Pearl has learned from one of the best,” Sampson tweeted. “Did his work when no one was watching and now will show the world he’s earned the right to lead a great program like Auburn. Congratulations Steven. Go be great, man. Proud of you.”
“(Coach Sampson), thank you,” Pearl replied in a quote tweet. “I admire and respect you as much, if not more, than anyone in our profession... this coming from you is substantial to me. Thank you for setting the bar, because you and your program are the standard! Much love to you and your family.”
It’s no secret that Pearl, like his father, has tremendous respect for Sampson. It’s easy to understand why: Over the last five seasons, Houston went 163-24. That’s an absurd winning percentage of 87.2%. The Cougars have reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament every year in that span and made a pair of Final Four runs. They’ve also finished as the No. 2 team in KenPom four seasons in a row.
There isn’t a more consistent program in college basketball.
“I think they’re the winningest program in college basketball since 2018,” Pearl said Friday afternoon. “I think we’re the sixth. They have 41 more wins than us in that time. While we’ve been really successful here since 2017-18, they’ve been even more successful.
“Unbelievable opportunity.”
On Sunday, that mutual respect will be channeled into a rematch of a heavyweight fight from last season, when Auburn went on the road and rallied from nine down in the second half to beat Houston by five. Both of those teams would go on to win their conference titles and make it to the most loaded Final Four in recent memory.
The scary part for Auburn: Houston returns more than any of those No. 1 seeds that went to San Antonio. The Cougars bring back 44.2% of their minutes played and 42.3% of their scoring from a season that ended two points shy of a national championship — and then added “the best recruiting class in the history of their program.”
“They don’t look like freshmen when they’re out there playing,” Pearl said.
Auburn, by contrast, returns just one rotation player: Tahaad Pettiford, who announced his arrival in that win at Houston last season, scoring 21 points and going 5-8 from deep in just his second game of college basketball. The Tigers retooled through the transfer portal and the non-Division I ranks, giving Pearl a very different roster for his debut season.
Statistically, it’s been tougher to beat Houston in the last several seasons than any other team in the country — but Auburn has done it, and feel like they’re equipped to do it again.
“I see a bunch of things going around on social media, saying things about Auburn, saying we’re not ready and things like that — just about the season in general,” leading scorer Keyshawn Hall said. “But I feel like we’re going to shock a lot of people Sunday. I think we’re going to do something special.
“Don’t get me wrong, that’s a great team over there and they’re the No. 1 team in the country, but I feel like we can compete with any team in the country.”
So what is it going to take for Auburn to pull off another upset of Houston? To get you ready for Sunday’s showdown at Legacy Arena, here are five keys for the Tigers.