Aubserver Mailbag 152: So... what will Auburn do at quarterback now?

This week: The portal needs, grading Hugh Freeze's Year 1, the best basketball lineups, SEC predictions, colors and the natty

QB Payton Thorne (Austin Perryman/Auburn Tigers)

Welcome to the first mailbag of 2024. Welcome to the start of SEC basketball season. And welcome back to the never-ending news cycle that is Auburn football’s offseason.

By the time most of you are reading this, I’ll be on my way to Arkansas for Auburn’s SEC opener against Arkansas — my first-ever trip to Bud Walton Arena. I can’t wait, because “The Basketball Palace of Mid-America” is a venue I’ve wanted to check off my list for a very long time. (Also, after hitting Mizzou Arena later this season, I will have hit every SEC basketball venue, just in time for Texas and Oklahoma to join.)

We’re less than a week removed from Auburn wrapping up its 2023 football season at the Music City Bowl, and it really feels like there could be some major moves happening this offseason to help get the program closer to where it wants to be on the field.

Both sports, as always, will keep The Observer busy and this mailbag quite full.

I’m glad you have joined us for another calendar year of the roller coaster. Let’s go.

What is the likelihood that Auburn’s 2024 starting QB is currently on the roster? How seriously do you expect Freeze and Co. to pursue the Liberty transfer QB?

Owen

How much does QB situation change after Thorne's less than desirable play against Maryland? How many in the room could follow Ashford transfer out? 

Bebop

Things change in a hurry in this business. Less than a month ago, Hugh Freeze stood behind a podium and said that Auburn was “all-in” on building around Payton Thorne and the current quarterback room for 2024.

Then the Music City Bowl happened. Thorne went 13-27 (48.1%) passing for 84 yards (3.1 YPA), one touchdown and a pick-six. Against FBS teams that finished with a winning record in 2023, Thorne completed less than 50% of his passes with a YPA of 5.0 — which was last in the SEC and outside of the top 100 nationally among qualified quarterbacks. Auburn went 0-7 in those games.

The brightest part of the passing game against Maryland came in the fourth quarter, when the matchup was well in hand, and true freshman Hank Brown went 7-9 passing for 132 yards and led the Tigers into the red zone twice in his first career appearance. That prompted a question about Brown and the future of the quarterback room in the postgame press conference. Freeze didn’t shy away from it.

“It's wide-open,” Freeze said of the quarterbacks. “… I'm constantly evaluating players, staff, everything. And if we see that my evaluation has been wrong, then we have to change gears and reevaluate to make us better, then that's the steps we should make. That position should be an interesting one, certainly, in spring practice.”

Flash-forward to Monday, when reports from national writers at both 247Sports and On3 came out that said Auburn had contacted Washington State transfer quarterback Cam Ward. Less than an hour later, though, Ward announced that he would turn down all the teams going after him in the portal and instead enter the NFL Draft.

A day later, reports surfaced that Liberty starting quarterback Kaidon Salter — who Freeze brought to the program after he was dismissed at Tennessee in 2021 — would enter the portal soon. That officially happened Thursday morning, and he joined 1,000-yard Flames receiver C.J. Daniels.

Salter arguably became the best available quarterback in the transfer portal when he entered. While Liberty didn’t play a very tough schedule in its undefeated run to the C-USA title in 2023 under Jamey Chadwell, Salter was No. 3 in the FBS in passing efficiency (176.60), No. 4 in yards per attempt (9.9) and No. 6 in passing touchdowns (32). He also ran for more than 1,000 yards and a dozen touchdowns. Those are phenomenal numbers against any type of competition.

As soon as word got out that Salter would hit the portal, Auburn was quickly linked to him. It made perfect sense, as he was one of Freeze’s quarterbacks at Liberty and had the type of numbers that could be an upgrade in a familiar offense.

However, let’s go back to something that I wrote back in December, when there was speculation that Auburn would go after a transfer quarterback: Several big-name players at the position might prefer to go to a program that is just a quarterback away from seriously contending. Auburn isn’t exactly that type of program right now.

Ohio State also made sense for Salter, but it got Will Howard on Thursday evening, while I was writing this. (I’ve also seen Oklahoma mentioned for Salter, and Miami feels pretty desperate for a quarterback.)

So, even with Freeze’s past connection with Salter, there are no guarantees that Auburn can just snap its fingers and get him. There was always going to be healthy competition for a quarterback of his talent level.

Do I expect Freeze and Co. to go after Salter? Yes. The reported interest in Ward after the Music City Bowl is enough to suggest that. Do I expect Salter to transfer to Auburn? I can’t say for sure. It could very well happen, but I would also expect other programs to push hard for him as well.

Here’s the other thing to keep in mind: Auburn’s loss to Maryland was a bad one in terms of the passing game, but did anything really change? It was another example of the problems that the Tigers had through the air in the regular season.

If the coaching staff thought it could compete in 2024 with its current quarterback room — which also includes Brown, Holden Geriner and Walker White — did another poor showing against a quality opponent in a disconnected exhibition affected by opt-outs prove anything different?

Now, that’s not to say Auburn is going to automatically roll into 2024 with no changes at quarterback. Again, the Ward interest and the Salter connection are enough to prove that Freeze is willing to change course at the position. This offense has to start producing on the field more next season, and I’ve said a few times recently that just banking on a lot of new wide receivers is a risky gamble at best.

That doesn’t mean a new quarterback is going to happen, though. As other questions in this mailbag will show, Auburn has more than just a need at quarterback, and it’s fighting to turn the tide in the transfer battles there. Those come with a real cost in terms of resources.

If Auburn gets another quarterback in the portal between now and spring ball, I would expect some outgoing movement at the position. If it doesn’t, I would expect Auburn to treat quarterback like a real battle among multiple players when practices begin.

But I can’t say with certainty, one way or another, what’s about to happen. Nothing would surprise me. Strap in.

With the QB-to-be discussion seeming to dominate, could the real issue next year (or issue 1a) be the defensive line? With Harris and Nasili-Kite gone, I believe the portal discussion should focus on this.

GMC