Observations: Auburn 94, Vermont 43

The Tigers were expected to win their opener by around 17 points. They tripled that in the most jaw-dropping beatdown of the Bruce Pearl Era.

As part of Tipoff Week, I’ve decided to unlock the Observations from Auburn’s stunning 51-point season-opening win over Vermont and make them free for everybody to read.

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SG/SF Miles Kelly (David Gray/Auburn Tigers)

AUBURN — On any other night, at any other moment, it’s probably a bad shot.

Tahaad Pettiford raced up the right side of the floor after getting the pass off of a Chaney Johnson rebound. As a Vermont defender stepped up to slow Pettiford down, Miles Kelly flashed his hand and called for the ball on the left side.

When he caught Pettiford’s pass, Kelly was standing a step to the right of the line that marks the end of Auburn’s designated coaching box. That line is 28 feet away from the baseline — and even farther from the basket.

Another Vermont defender already had his hand up, knowing he had to close out. Kelly stepped into his motion and fired anyway. The shot couldn’t be classified as logo range, but only because it was too close to the sideline to be on the interlocking AU.

On the bench, Johni Broome raised his arm as soon as Kelly let the shot go. Denver Jones excitedly jumped up and down while the ball was still in flight. Chad Baker-Mazara put his hands behind his head in a disbelieving “Surrender Cobra.”

Kelly, the Georgia Tech transfer making his debut, had just hit his fifth straight 3-pointer in less than four minutes. Auburn was now up by 56 points on a Vermont team that was only a 17.5-point underdog. The Tigers had gone into the halftime locker room up by 25 on the Catamounts and then won the “third quarter” by 29 more.

“I mean, honestly, after like the fourth one, I kind of just blacked out,” Kelly said.

He wasn’t the only one.

In a season opener against a dangerous Vermont team that has been to three straight NCAA Tournaments — and one that resembled the Yale team that knocked it out of March Madness in its last game that counted — Auburn was beyond dominant on both ends of the floor.

Vermont shot just 26% from the field and scored only 43 points. Auburn shot 56% from the field, hit 16 3-pointers and won by 51.

“That’s a win for Auburn against the field,” Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said. “That Vermont team has got a chance to, and should, win their league and be in the NCAA Tournament again as a 13 seed.”

It was the Tigers’ biggest win over a Division I opponent under Pearl, and it came against a team that simply doesn’t lose like this.

“We’re a proud program,” Vermont head coach John Becker said afterwards. “So, to get your ass kicked by 50, it doesn’t feel great.”

Vermont entered the game inside the top-80 on KenPom. The Catamounts had won 20 out of their last 22 games, including a road win over preseason AAC favorite UAB just two night earlier.

Auburn had played countless non-conference opponents far worse on paper than Vermont and yet never had beaten one quite like this under Pearl.

And, by nearly tripling the expected point spread, the Tigers jumped up to No. 2 in KenPom — just in time for a Saturday night showdown at KenPom No. 1 Houston.

“Houston is going to be a completely different matchup and different team,” Pearl said. “Different size, athleticism and physicality. We’re not celebrating this. Don’t read into it too much, other than we shot it really well and played pretty hard.”

While that’s a good mindset for a team before an epic matchup against a fellow national title contender inside its own city, it’s also something of an understatement.

Here are four Observations you can read into from Auburn’s 94-43 win over Vermont, along with the Rotation Charts, Nerd Stats and the Quote of the Night.

SG/SF Miles Kelly (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

Miles Kelly could make a massive difference this season

It’s hard to believe that Kelly’s first official game inside Neville Arena didn’t start well.

After checking into the game in the first rotation, Kelly rushed a mid-range jumper that missed badly. He then misfired on a pair of 3-pointers, making him 0-3 from the field less than 2:30 into his debut.

But Kelly, who carried Georgia Tech’s entire offense in several memorable upsets last season, has a true shooter’s mentality. So, when he got the ball off a full-court press steal from Jones on the wing, he squared up and fired away.

Kelly’s first 3-pointer in a competitive game at Auburn — which came right after a nice finish by Johnson — helped get the Tigers out of what had been a skid of seven straight missed shots. He would hit another 3-pointer a minute later, and Auburn was well on its way to an 18-3 run that took a close game into a potential blowout.

“When I was at Media Day, everybody asked me, ‘Who the best shooter on the team?’” Jones said. “I told them, I was, like, “Look, we got Miles. I ain't gonna elaborate too much. Y'all are just gonna see when the season starts.’

“So he showed them today what he’s capable of.”

In the second half, when Kelly rotated back into the game, he sent Neville Arena into a frenzy usually saved for the biggest plays of SEC thrillers.

Over the course of 3:55 of game time, Kelly hit five consecutive 3-pointers. The first one was an audacious stepback from straight-on that came with his feet on the logo. The last one was the catch-and-shoot from a step inside the scorer’s table.

“He is an NBA-caliber 3-point shooter,” Pearl said. “If he can see it, he can make it. Vermont probably didn’t have a lot of scouting on Miles Kelly, probably looked back on some stuff he did back at Georgia Tech. It wasn’t like we got him great shots. He was shooting it from anywhere.

“I thought he had one from Opelika one time. But he was open, so he shot it.”

Kelly’s seven 3-pointers were the most for an Auburn player since Jabari Smith hit that many in a win over Vanderbilt on February 16, 2022. He was just one shy of matching Bryce Brown for the Neville Arena single-game record.

And, again: This came in Kelly’s first official game at Auburn, and he didn’t even start. He came off the bench, although Pearl said earlier in the week that he will likely be in the starting five at some point in the season — remember, he missed time in the late preseason with an illness.

For an Auburn backcourt that averaged the second-fewest points in the SEC last season, Kelly could be the offensive boost that it needed. He showed at Georgia Tech that he has an ability to create an avalanche with his shooting. It only took him one game to carry that over to the Plains.

And that shooting can be contagious: Jones, Baker-Mazara and Furman transfer point guard JP Pegues all hit multiple 3-pointers on Wednesday night. As a team, Auburn shot a blistering 45.7% from deep, which was its best percentage in a game with at least 30 attempts since a victory over South Alabama on December 4, 2020.

“I mean, it’s super hard to cover everybody,” Kelly said. “We got Johni and Dylan (Cardwell) down there. We got Chad, JP, Tahaad (Pettiford), Jahki (Howard) and Denver. It’s hard to key in on one person. Like, today was my day, but it can be someone else’s day at any given time. So, it’s hard to key in one person.

“Denver says I’m the best shooter, but I would say he’s the best shooter. You see, he got hot there. It’s just, in any given day, like, you don’t know who’s going to go off.”

Auburn clocked in and locked in

Even before Auburn’s exhibition blowout wins over Furman and Florida Atlantic — two teams that aren’t projected to be as strong as Vermont — Pearl was already preaching the importance of the opener Wednesday night.

Then, after winning the two exhibition games by a combined 51 points, Auburn won said opener by… 51 points.

“I think the outcome and the margin really have everything to do with the respect that we have for Vermont,” Pearl said. “We took them very seriously. We prepared very seriously.”

Since the Friday night win over Florida Atlantic, which started with an early Saturday practice, Auburn had been laser-focused on a Vermont team that was far from your typical scout.

Pearl focused on locking into the scouting report on Vermont, because the Catamounts were experienced, well-drilled and comfortable in their own identity. There’s a reason why Pearl repeatedly drew comparisons to Yale. It got his team’s attention, and the practices over the last few days were focused and intense.

“Got a great coaching staff,” Jones said. “I feel like they prepared us well. Our scout team, shout out to them — they prepared us very well in practice. They ran a lot of sets.”

The key to the matchup was affecting a Vermont offense that was one of the nation’s best last season in avoiding turnovers and scoring efficiently. The Catamounts love to slow it down, spread the floor and work for the best possible shot.

To combat that, Auburn pressed up on Vermont on the perimeter and dared it to attack 1-on-1. The Tigers funneled the smaller Catamounts toward the elite rim protection of Broome and Cardwell, where they either got their shots affected or kicked the ball outside to what would be rushed attempts from deep.

“Honestly, our coaching staff told us the key points that we had to key in on on defense — to the very T — as far as weak hands, not switching certain actions, switching other actions,” Jones said. “So, I feel like our coaches really prepared us well for this game.”

Vermont was quite uncomfortable playing that way. The Catamounts turned the ball over 16 times after coughing it up just five times Monday night at UAB. They only hit 15 shots in total, going just 4-22 on layup attempts. And, best of all, the Tigers only sent them to the free-throw line 11 times.

“Well, I thought the best thing about it was we guarded without fouling,” Pearl said. “I thought that was so important.”

Auburn’s defense disrupted a veteran offense and didn’t mind playing a slower game. After all, the Tigers led the entire country in effective field goal percentage defense last season, so preventing scoring in the half-court has been one of their specialities.

As friend of the newsletter Henry Patton put it after the game, Auburn could have not scored a single point after halftime and still won, because of the way it defended.

The dominant defensive performance against Vermont showcased one of Auburn’s best attributes as a team: Having the versatility and the strategic chops to adapt to a particular opponent. The Tigers are matchup-based much more than they are system-based, and it helps that Pearl has had an ultra-consistent staff of assistants.

“It’s all about learning,” Pearl said. “We’ll lock in tomorrow. We focus one at a time. We did some summer preparation on everybody, and our coaches did a good job. I thought Chad Prewett and Corey Williams did an outstanding job on the preparation today.

“So we’ll put this one behind us quickly, focus on Houston and travel Friday. To me, Duke, Alabama and Houston are the three best teams in the country right now, as I see it.”

PF Chaney Johnson (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

Trust Chaney

There was more than a little hesitation this offseason by members of the Auburn fan base about Johnson’s ability to replace Jaylin Williams at power forward.

And while Johnson shouldn’t be expected to do all of what Williams did at the position — improvement from other players and production from newcomers can help make up for that — he made quite an impact in his first game as Auburn’s top 4 man.

Johnson scored 13 points, which included a perfect 6-6 line on shots taken inside the arc, and came down with a team-high nine rebounds against Vermont. He only played 16 minutes, yet was one of the team’s top performers in plus/minus at +27.

“Chaney was a monster inside,” Pearl said. “Just a beast. And he played with great physicality, great confidence. He’s our hardest worker. Chaney Johnson is our hardest worker. I just love seeing one of your hardest workers get rewarded like that.”

The former Division II transfer looked unstoppable in the paint against Vermont. While the Catamounts had players as tall as Johnson on the floor, they could not match his toughness down low.

Johnson bullied defenders and got to his preferred spots on the floor, where he finished with newfound confidence and a silky touch. While Kelly lit up the scoreboard in that massive second-half run, Johnson was racking up his own stats, too.

While this type of performance might come as a surprise to some, his teammates aren’t in that camp.

They’ve seen Johnson continue to take his already top-notch work ethic to a new level this offseason — which is evidenced by the fact that he has the body of an NFL edge rusher now — and they’re excited to see that pay dividends.

“Everybody on our team can be a testament to this, but you see him in the gym working and with our assistant coaches,” Jones said. “We all been telling him we want him to be aggressive. I’ve been telling him myself, and I feel like it’s different coming from your teammates rather than your coaches.

“We’ve been telling him, and he’s starting to lock in. So I feel like we are going to see that this season.”

Johnson probably won’t be able to bully Houston like he did Vermont. But his stronger, more confident offensive game should only help him in that matchup, and he knows he’ll have to be ready for war down low.

“Now, the physicality will be different on Saturday,” Pearl said. “It won’t be just Houston’s first-shot defense. It’ll be their second-shot defense and their third-shot defense, because they’re going to throw it up there, and they’re going to go get it.”

SG/PG Denver Jones (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

A good debut for the new-look point guard situation

Auburn only turned the ball over on 12.9% of its attempts Wednesday night, which would have ranked inside the top dozen of its best games in that department last season.

While Vermont isn’t a team that creates a lot of havoc on defense, Auburn’s performance in this area was a solid sign, considering it’s playing three guys who are brand-new to the point guard spot on the Plains: Pegues, Jones and Pettiford.

“Denver had one turnover,” Pearl said. “I don’t think JP had a turnover. Tahaad may have had one or two. So I thought they did a good job. One of the things we’re focusing on is, you know, again, when we execute, and we run something, we get organized, we’re getting good looks.

“And we’ve got guys that can finish inside. We’ve got guys that can come off screens and make open shots. And so, if you value possessions, you’re going to do that.”

None of Pegues, Jones or Pettiford hit the 20-minute mark, mainly because Auburn was able to start rotating in its walk-on guards with considerable time left on the clock.

There was great balance among the trio, as Auburn didn’t seem to have any sort of drop-off or change on offense that depended on who was on the floor. Pegues didn’t miss a shot, was turnover-free and was +26 in plus/minus. Pettiford, while not scoring at all, was the point guard for multiple big runs from the Tigers.

And Jones scored 16 points on a great 5-6 shooting and was a +28 in even fewer minutes than the other two.

“For y’all that don’t know, I played point my first year in college,” Jones said. “So it kind of just felt like I was going back to my roots a little bit. It just felt natural, just being out there, being able to play point again, call sets and getting us in things.”

The balance carried beyond the point guard spot. Five Tigers scored in double figures Wednesday night, and two more were a bucket away from joining them. Half of Auburn’s 94 points came from the bench.

Auburn’s assist rate wasn’t outrageous — 15 on 33 made shots — but that had a lot to do with players such as Kelly, Baker-Mazara and even Broome creating their own opportunities off the dribble. If the Tigers can stay the course, those are the attributes of an even more dangerous offense than usual.

“You know, that’s the best of both worlds,” Pearl said. “But the team’s got to remember to remain balanced, continue to be unselfish, be happy for your teammate when it’s that particular night, when your teammate’s feeling it.

“Because it’s not going to be the same guy every night.”

Rotation Charts

(click the charts for full-resolution versions)

For those of you new to the rotation charts, the above charts show how the Tigers substituted throughout the game. Each box represents a minute of game time — the darker the shade of blue, the more time played in that minute. 

There is also a plus/minus per minute to show how well Auburn did during each 60-second span. The darker the green, the more points the Tigers outscored their opponents. The darker the red, the more points the opponents outscored the Tigers.

• Once again, Auburn started the double-big lineup of Broome and Cardwell but didn’t go back to it after the starts of both halves. We’ll see if that trend continues or if Johnson’s play earns him the starting nod at power forward. It’s safe to say that the lineups that stagger Broome and Cardwell at center have been more effective so far.

• When Auburn closed the first half well, it had a fun and extremely athletic lineup on the floor: Jones, Kelly, Howard, Johnson and Broome. That crew put together a 10-0 run — the EvanMiya #KillShot — right before the buzzer.

• It’s worth noting that when the Tigers went truly nuclear behind Kelly in the second half, they did it with almost a complete bench squad on the floor.

• Cardwell went 0-1 from the field and accidentally took away his own best shot to score when he got called for basket interference early. He still led the team in plus/minus at +36, because there’s still value in being a great rim protector and playing your role on offense when there are hot shooters around you.

• Again, Chris Moore is going to be the 11th man in this rotation. He played 10 minutes, which was five fewer than the next man ahead of him (Ja’Heim “Turtle” Hudson). Moore is going to warrant some playing time throughout the season, but don’t expect him to play a big role.

• Auburn clearly wanted to give Howard — who brought the house down with a Dunk Contest-worthy windmill slam — as much run as possible in his debut. He played 20 minutes, which was second only to Broome. The same might have gone for Pettiford, had he not fouled out.

SG/SF Miles Kelly (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

Nerd Stats

Past readers have asked for explanations on some of these advanced statistics. I’ve added screenshots to definitions, both here and here. Think of those as quick glossaries, just substitute PER (player efficiency rating) for “Game Score.”

• Kelly had a True Shooting percentage of 96% in a game where he took 11 shots from the field and nine 3-pointers. That’s certified sniper behavior.

• Johnson rebounded an estimated 44.2% of Vermont’s misses when he was on the floor. His defensive rating was just 22.6. And, again, he didn’t miss a single shot from inside the arc. Beast mode.

• While Kelly might have stolen the show, don’t overlook Jones. He had a True Shooting Percentage of 101%, an offensive rating of 160.9 and a floor percentage of 80.5%. He was an offensive machine Wednesday night.

• It’s getting funny to say that one of Broome’s quieter nights still has him finish with 12 points — including a pair of 3-pointers — seven rebounds, two assists, two blocks and a steal. He was efficient on both ends of the floor, per usual.

• Pegues had a ridiculous offensive rating of 259.2. According to KenPom, that’s the fourth-best single-game mark of any player in college basketball so far this season.

• Auburn went 12-17 on shots at the rim. Vermont went 6-24.

• Auburn averaged 1.353 points per possession in the first half, then somehow topped it with 1.455 in the second half. Vermont was well under .700 points per possession in both halves.

• Vermont scored on 28.4% of its trips down the floor and turned it over 23.9% of the time. Auburn scored on 57.4% of its trips and turned it over 13.2% of the time.

• Barring something drastic, Auburn is going to be No. 2 on KenPom when it plays No. 1 Houston on Saturday night. That’s the highest mark in program history, and it took just one game to get there.

• Not a Nerd Stat, but: Auburn has now won 55 straight non-conference home games. The last loss came on January 30, 2016 — almost nine years ago.

Quote of the Night

“I grew up in Boston. I know John Becker. I know his staff. I know how good they are. And we were ready for them.”

— HC Bruce Pearl

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