Mailbag 215: How does Jackson Arnold fit into Auburn's offense?

This week: Recruiting, "the right way," SEC schedules, playing in Texas, Tahaad Pettiford, patience, Players Era and game shows

(Austin Perryman/Auburn Tigers)

AUBURN — Jackson Arnold is going to be Auburn’s starting quarterback this fall.

Now, that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. Auburn went out and got Arnold out of the transfer portal this past winter, even though it already had Deuce Knight. While Knight could end up being a big-time quarterback at some point in his college career, he’s more raw than most 5-star freshmen. For Hugh Freeze and a program desperate to win now, it was smarter to bank on someone with experience at this level.

Arnold hasn’t “officially” been named the starting quarterback yet. But Freeze said he was the clear leader this summer, and his SEC Media Days selection only reinforces it. Eleven of the conference’s 16 teams are taking a quarterback to Atlanta. Most of the remaining ones who aren’t have real-deal battles on their hands heading into the fall.

This doesn’t mean that Knight is incapable of factoring into Auburn’s offense as a true freshman, and it doesn’t completely rule out Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels — although it’s going to be even harder for a less accomplished college quarterback to get serious playing time after not being on campus for spring practices. What it does mean, though, is that Knight is the guy for the Tigers until proven otherwise.

With that in mind, our lead question in this week’s mailbag is about Arnold and how he fits what Auburn wants to do on offense. Then we’ll talk about the ongoing recruiting saga for the program, along with some fun football questions, before diving into ones involving Auburn basketball.

A few of y’all answered my (late) question to you this week: If you could be on any TV game show, which one would you pick and why?

We’ll discuss all of that, and more, in this week’s mailbag. Let’s go.

What kind of passes has Jackson Arnold had the most success on so far in his career? Short, intermediate, deep? Left, MOF, Right, etc… and how do those tendencies fit into this offense?

Ric

To the passing charts!

According to Pro Football Focus, here is how Arnold did last season at Oklahoma in each level of passing depth:

• Deep (20+ air yards): 7/30 (23.3%) for 309 yards (10.3 YPA), 3 TD and 2 INT

• Intermediate (10-19): 20/40 (50%) for 292 yards (7.3 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT

• Short (0-9): 79/106 (74.5%) for 612 yards (5.8 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT

• Behind LOS: 48/53 (90.6%) for 197 yards (3.7 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT

Let’s be clear: Across the board, Arnold’s overall passing numbers were rough when compared to his SEC peers last season. He had either the lowest- or second-lowest completion percentages and yards per attempt marks at all three of the distance zones past the line of scrimmage. He was impacted by drops the most on intermediate balls, where he had a top-half adjusted completion percentage and the second-most touchdowns on those throws in the conference.

Other than that, you’re not going to get much encouragement from his statistics. But, remember, Oklahoma’s offense was a total disaster for most of the 2024 season — he had hardly any healthy receivers or offensive linemen on a consistent basis, and the play-calling duties switched during the middle of the campaign. While he could have done better, it was always going to be tough to get going in those circumstances.

When it comes to directions on the field, Arnold did his best work on passes to the right of the numbers: A 70% completion percentage and 9.1 yards per attempt on intermediate balls there, plus an 84.2% completion percentage and 5.6 yards per attempt on short throws there. Statistically, he seems to be the most comfortable when throwing toward his natural side. That’ll be interesting to track this fall.

What stood out to me the most when going through these numbers is the rate of Arnold’s throw types. He had the third-highest rate of short throws (43.1% of his attempts) in the SEC last season. Now, that might have to do with his lack of time to throw the ball behind a shaky offensive line — he faced the fourth-highest pressure rate of any qualified quarterback in the conference and scrambled the third-most times — but it’s clear that he is used to getting the ball out quickly.

How does that fit into Auburn’s offense? The Tigers threw it short 45.5% of the time in Freeze’s first season and 38.2% of the time in his second season. The quick game, usually predicated on Freeze’s usage of run-pass options (RPOs), is a key element. Getting 1-on-1 winners like Cam Coleman on the outside and lightning-fast weapons in the slot like Eric Singleton Jr. and Malcolm Simmons fits this scheme quite well.

Payton Thorne stretched the field a little more in his second season at Auburn with his intermediate throws, with mixed results. Arnold’s high rate of touchdowns and stronger adjusted completion percentage there are intriguing, especially if he gets more time to throw the ball behind a better line than what he had at Oklahoma. Additionally, it looks like Arnold has been better throwing outside the numbers, particularly toward his right, in his career than what Thorne did at Auburn.

I would expect Arnold to get a steady diet of quick-decision throws in Auburn’s offense this fall, given Freeze’s style and the type of talent around him. There will be times when the Tigers want him to stretch the ball vertically, but he shouldn’t be viewed as some elite option on deep balls. He’s at his best when he has time to set his feet and throw the ball, sometimes stretching it to those “pro throws” outside the numbers and in the intermediate game. His arm talent should be an upgrade.

From his time as a 5-star high schooler in Texas to his two seasons at Oklahoma, Arnold has played in similar spread offenses to the one Auburn will run. He’s a better stylistic fit, right off the bat, than what Thorne was when he first arrived. But he’s going to have to be a more accurate and more efficient quarterback than what he was in a tough situation last season with the Sooners.

That’s what Auburn is banking on: Arnold’s talent will ultimately win out when surrounded by better receivers and a more stable offensive line. It makes sense on paper. But it’s going to take a lot of work to make it click on the field this fall.

(Austin Perryman/Auburn Tigers)

I know you don’t cover recruiting on a daily basis, and for obvious reasons you’re probably inundated with football recruiting questions this week. But nevertheless, here’s mine — preceded by a shoutout to Carson Horn at WEGL, who planted this thought in my head.

First, we have to stipulate that John Cohen, Hugh Freeze, Will Redmond et al are all far more well-versed in the new revenue sharing/NIL rules than any of us fans.

Second, given the first stipulation, we have to further stipulate that the staffs at Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Ohio State et al are equally well-versed in the same rules.

Now, the question: can you give us one single reason why we should believe that our staff is so much smarter than the staffs at other schools that have a much, much better track record of recent success than Auburn?

Or, to put it another way, why shouldn’t we at least suspect that this “we’re doing it the right way, and nobody else is” mantra is just a cover story for something else that’s gone off the rails with football recruiting?

David