Aubserver Mailbag 136: Is Red Zone Robby here to stay?
This week: The stat to watch vs. Cal, tempo, rule changes, LSU, staying up late, Ronald Acuña Jr. and hated foods
QB Robby Ashford (Jamie Holt/Auburn Athletics)
THOUSANDS OF FEET SOMEWHERE ABOVE NEW MEXICO — I love traveling for games. I feel like covering games live, whether it’s football or basketball, helps me write a lot better. Covering from the couch is possible — and some people do it very well — but I feel disconnected.
As I finish writing this mailbag, I’m sitting on a Delta flight to San Jose on Thursday night. Auburn football is playing a rare game in Pac-12 territory, and I’m looking forward to my first trip to the Bay Area.
But this isn’t the first time I’ve covered an Auburn game on the West Coast. In fact, I did two different ones last year, going to the USC and Washington basketball games just before Christmas.
The sports media business is pretty depressing. People who are infinitely more talented than me get laid off or told they can’t do what they’re good at all the time. Big companies, including ones I’ve worked for in the past, shred travel budgets to nothing.
I think it’s worth the investment to go on the road and cover these games. And the fact that an independent sportswriter like me can go pay for cross-country trips without having to worry about anything financially is a testament to the incredible generosity and support of our Observer subscribers.
Again, this started as a project just to get through a pandemic season. It’s now the best and most stable job I’ll ever have. Thank you all for making it possible, and I hope I can repay a fraction of what you’ve done for me with the work I’ll do this weekend on the road.
Before we begin this Cal week mailbag, some quick housekeeping:
I want to shout out Mandy for asking me to pair each SEC team’s Week 1 performances to Jimmy Buffett songs. However, my knowledge of his music is extremely limited, so I don’t think I would be able to answer that well. But, as I tweeted upon his passing, there is no smarter product of the Auburn journalism program than Buffett — who dropped out very quickly.
Also, apologies to longtime Inner Circle members Brice and Jerry, but I’m not answering any questions that have to do with the Delta Airlines incident from earlier this week. Even I have a limit for what can go in this mailbag.
Let’s go.
What should we expect with the red-zone offense moving forward? Saturday was a great move forward, considering games like 2016 LSU where we win with 6 field goals and no red-zone offensive life.
Brent
I had a conversation with friend of the newsletter Justin Lee during the game about how many dual-threat backup quarterbacks we’ve heard rumors about playing in packages over the years.
Robby Ashford had a chance to be the latest in that crew, but then Auburn just went ahead and… did it. The Tigers didn’t wait for a different matchup, and they didn’t want to conceal anything. Instead, they wanted to put points on the board and went with a quarterback who is quite effective at running the ball.
Last season, Auburn scored on 88.1% of its red-zone possessions, which tied for 30th in FBS. Pretty good, right? Well, the touchdown percentage on red-zone trips was only at 57.14%, which was 87th nationally and second-worst in the SEC. Auburn hasn’t finished inside the top half of the SEC in red-zone touchdown percentage since 2019, which can explain some of the Tigers’ struggles over the last few years.
So for Auburn to commit to maximizing its chances in the red zone — the lone field goal came on a drive impacted by a holding call on Rivaldo Fairweather — and actually doing it is admirable. It did, however, come against UMass. Last season, the Minutemen ranked 113th nationally in red-zone defense. There’s only so much you can take from a good performance against an overmatched team.
My ultimate question concerning the red-zone offense, whether it’s Ashford or Payton Thorne at quarterback, is if Auburn is going to be able to pass in those situations. As the competition gets tougher, the smart play will not just be to run headfirst into loaded boxes, even if Ashford proved last November he can still generate plenty of rushing success when the entire stadium knows it’s a run call.
Auburn only threw the ball three times in the red zone against UMass because it could just run with zero problem. That’s not going to be the case forever. Thorne needs to be able to spin it again inside the 20-yard line — he had 23 touchdowns to just two interceptions in red-zone attempts at Michigan State — and Auburn needs to feel comfortable enough to have Ashford pull it and throw it every now and then.
Could the Tigers show some of that Saturday against Cal? Perhaps. Cal’s red-zone defense was all-or-nothing last season, finishing 40th in overall scoring percentage but 115th in touchdown percentage. If opponents took care of the ball, they usually found their way into the end zone against the Bears. And, even though North Texas had little success against Cal last week, it still scored touchdowns on both of its red-zone visits.
As Painter said on the Cal preview podcast this week, let’s see if Auburn can run the two-quarterback system to success in the red zone against an SEC team first. Cal will be a better opponent, especially away from home, but it’s not like the Bears have been lockdown machines inside the 20-yard line. Still, there are reasons for optimism if you’re an Auburn fan who has been dying to see better red-zone offense.
Red Zone Robby was thrilling to watch. But when it came to moving the team on a longer field, things did not go as smoothly.
At this point in his career, is Robby capable of leading sustained drives that require a mixture of passing and running? Or are we better served by having Payton move the team into scoring position and then letting Robby seal the deal?
Homefield Advantage