Aubserver Mailbag 126: Which position should fans be most concerned about?

This week: BCR tiers, talent vs. coaching, Kirby Smart, 2010, rewriting the last three seasons, airports and Denmark

JACK Keldric Faulk (Austin Perryman/Auburn Athletics)

Welcome back to our regularly scheduled programming.

After a fun one-question mailbag two weeks ago and Dan’s first solo mailbag last week while I was overseas, it’s time to get back to the traditional ‘bag here at The Observer.

This week, I got several new questions pertaining to the big topics we’ve discussed recently in the newsletter — and I went back and answered some really good ones y’all sent in during the one-question mailbag week.

We start with a look at a position group that will continue to be one of the most talked-about ones this offseason for Auburn, at least in the non-quarterback division. Then we tackle some big-picture questions about talent acquisition, coaching and where Auburn fits into the grand scheme of things right now in college football. We’ll also take a look back to the most improbable moments of the 2010 championship season and diagnose the last three years for Auburn football in a unique hypothetical.

I’ve also got several questions at the end about air travel, as I spent the equivalent of three full days on a plane or in an airport this past week. Special thanks to Painter and Dan for keeping the ship running here while I was on a very important and extremely memorable family vacation in Europe — and shoutout to longtime friends of the program Blake Lovell and Justin Lee for filling in on the podcasts for me.

We’re about a month away from SEC Media Days and less than two months away from the start of fall camp. This might be the thick of the offseason, but Auburn and the Inner Circle always provide stuff for the Observer. For that and everything else y’all provide, I’m beyond thankful.

Let’s go.

Now that the roster for football is mostly settled, what position should fans be most concerned about heading into fall camp?

John

I’m probably going to sound like a broken record throughout the rest of the offseason, but it has to be the Jack linebacker spot.

Granted, I’m on the record as being a big fan of what Appalachian State transfer Jalen McLeod brings to the table. I also think that the ceiling for Keldric Faulk is extremely high. But this is a completely brand-new position for Auburn in both strategy and personnel — there isn’t a single player here who was on the Plains last season.

I’ve said this plenty of times before as well: Being able to consistently rush the passer might just be the second most-important aspect of a football team, behind having the right quarterback in place. An effective pass rush changes the math problem at the core of playing defense. If you can affect the quarterback with fewer players than the offense is sacrificing in protection, you can commit more manpower to the tougher challenge of covering wide receivers who know where they’re going.

This takes me to a point made by longtime Inner Circle member Walt last week:

“One thing that concerns me right now is not really seeing a pass rusher capable of hitting double-digit sacks. I think I wrote something back when I ran College and Mag about how you can near directly correlate Auburn having a good season over the last 20 years with whether or not they had a player reach double-digits in sacks. I think there was only one year that was an outlier, and even that one was just barely off. Might be an interesting offseason thing to relook at some point.”

I tend to believe that a team’s overall sack numbers — and, deeper than that, its overall quarterback pressures — have a greater influence on the success of the team than just having one superstar pass-rusher. But, obviously, having that player is going to make it much easier for the team numbers to be up.

If you look back, Auburn’s all-time double-digit sack guys are: Jeff Holland in 2017 (SEC West title), Dee Ford in 2013 (SEC title), Nick Fairley in 2010 (national and SEC titles), Antonio Coleman in 2009 (8-5 record), Gary Walker and Mike Felton in 1994 (9-1-1 record), Craig Ogletree in 1989 (SEC title), Gerald Robinson in 1985 (8-4 record) and Kevin Greene in 1984 (9-4 record).

Auburn won SEC titles in 1983, 1987, 1988, 2004 and won the West in 2000 without a double-digit sack guy. It also had 10-win seasons in 1986, 1993 and 2006 — although Quentin Groves came really close at 9.5 sacks — without anyone hitting that number.

Like Walt notes, this really holds up over the last 20 years, but it hasn’t been completely necessary for Auburn to have a good season or even a great defense.

Here’s another way to look at it: Since Pro Football Focus started tracking full seasons in 2014, Auburn has had at least 200 quarterback pressures five times — 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2021. Over those nine years, those five seasons are arguably the best five. Last season, even with the likes of Derick Hall playing at an All-SEC level on the edge, Auburn finished the year with just 168 quarterback pressures.

In order for Auburn to take a step forward as a team and be more competitive, it’s going to have to get more production out of its pass rush. The Jack position will be the centerpiece of that plan, and there’s so many unknowns with that group right now.

Stewart Mandel has his 4-tiered system of college football rankings that he updates every 5 years (Kings, Barons, Knights, and Peasants), and we now have the BCR rankings based on 4- and 5- star recruits. 

If you were to build talent tiers out of the BCR, where would the cutoffs be, and how crowded would each tier be? (As a bonus I think it would be telling to know how many national champions came from each tier and what kind of quarterback talent was needed to win from lower tiers.)

Chris