Mailbag 199: Can Auburn find its edge again on defense?
This week: Johni Broome, Jahki Howard, Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones, 20-point scorers, the SEC Tournament and youth sports
(Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)
AUBURN — Welcome back to the mailbag.
By the time this comes out, Auburn will be a few hours away from its massive No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup at Alabama. Because of that, I’m not going to go too long with an introduction.
This is sort of an all-business mailbag from our Auburn fan subscribers, which makes sense. If your team is the best in the country and they’re playing the second-best team in the country — that’s also its biggest rival — you probably don’t want to spend too much time on nonsense topics.
You asked questions about how Auburn can improve down the stretch, from a team perspective to an individual perspective, along with a look ahead to the SEC Tournament and some basketball strategy.
Thanks as always for reading and subscribing. I can’t believe that I’m covering a No. 1 vs. No. 2 game later today. I also can’t believe that the next mailbag will be No. 200. That’s all thanks to y’all.
Let’s go.
Auburn's two losses this year have both come, primarily, as a result of their defense not playing up to expectations, and that's something that feels extremely rare for a Bruce Pearl-coached team: that their defense would be the reason they lose games.
I'm uncertain if this is actually the case, but typically, in previous years, it's felt like losses have come more so due to let down performances from the offence, whether it be lack of execution with set plays and/or simply not hitting shots — the tourney losses against Miami and Houston, and virtually any game in Rupp Arena come to mind as examples of that.
If we go back to, say, the Jabari/Walker year — which feels like the year BP adopted the more suffocating, half-court focused, block-a-million-shots style of defense that this team plays with — is there a stat that can give us an idea of whether losses were primarily sustained via poor defense vs poor offense that you could use to compare the two losses from this season to a few losses from the previous three seasons?
I'm curious as to whether or not my theory that these losses this year are outliers vs. most losses in other seasons is backed up at all.
James
This season, Auburn’s only two losses came in its two worst games for defense. According to KenPom, Florida’s offensive efficiency of 122.0 and Duke’s offensive efficiency of 133.8 are by far the best numbers anyone has put on the Tigers this season.
You can also point out that Auburn has won three games while giving up 80-plus this season, but those victories over Iowa State, Texas and Ole Miss came with some stretches of strong defensive play. On the flip side, Auburn has won its three worst offensive performances this season: South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee.
Last season, Auburn lost eight games. Seven of those eight losses came inside Auburn’s nine worst defensive performances of the season. The lone outlier was the low-scoring loss at Mississippi State. Unfortunately for Auburn, there was a decent amount of overlap between “worst offensive games” and “worst defensive games” last season.
Five of Auburn’s six worst offensive performances — and eight of its worst 12 — were all losses. The story there? Auburn was somewhat better at winning lower-scoring games last season, like Texas A&M and Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament, than it was when the other team was scoring in bunches. But, again, there was overlap.
Two seasons ago, Auburn lost nine of its worst 10 defensive performances by efficiency. It also lost nine of its worst 13 offensive performances. Again, being better on defense was slightly more indicative of wins and losses for the Tigers.
Three seasons ago, it was different. Five of Auburn’s six losses on the season were among the eight worst offensive games of the campaign. Remarkably, Auburn went 6-2 in games when the opponent had an offensive efficiency of 100 or better. The marathon loss to UConn and the season-ender against Miami were the only exceptions. Auburn, statistically, needed to be better on offense that season to win.
So, what does this all mean? To me, it shows that over the last three seasons, the bigger difference between winning and losing for Auburn has been its defense. There are always exceptions you can find. But, it’s pretty telling to me that Auburn lost nine of its 10 worst defensive showings two seasons ago, seven of its nine worst defensive showings last season and, now, its two worst defensive showings this season.
There are games when neither side is operating with great efficiency, and Auburn loses. (The Florida loss, for example, had the fourth-lowest offensive rating of the season for Auburn.)
But, I keep going back to the notion that a Bruce Pearl team is always going to harp on defense. When the Tigers are at their best on that end of the floor, they’re tough to beat — because they defend in a way that’s different than most teams in college basketball. Even if they’re not pressing and trapping and forcing turnovers at high rates anymore, they want to win by shutting teams down, especially on the road.
And, this might be anecdotal, but go back to Tuesday night against Vanderbilt. Auburn started and ended well because it was playing well on defense during those times. Outside of that, it was mostly exchanging buckets or giving up the occasional run. That’s not what this team is, at its core.
I mean, I wrote this back in October:
Defense is central to Auburn’s DNA, even in a season when it has the most efficient offense in college basketball overall.
If Auburn wants to walk out of Alabama with a win later today, it doesn’t have to necessarily match its rival’s offensive firepower. It has to be better on defense, string together stops, and play the game at its preferred style. If it can’t do that, the Duke and Florida losses are enough proof that there’s a formula for an elite team to win.
(Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)
One of the things I noticed Tuesday night was Vandy constantly looking to take the ball to the basket against Johni. While Johni is obviously not 100%, I would guess other teams might look to take advantage of this.
What’s your assessment on if/how Auburn can adjust to this on defense?
Will
Did it not seem like Broome was more hindered/bothered by his ankle against Vandy, than any other game, post-injury?
Gavyn