Aubserver Mailbag 165: How does 3PT% translate for a transfer?

This week: Point guards, JP Pegues, an all-time starting five, football's offensive vibes, spring games, the Braves, and gas station pizza

SG Denver Jones (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)

Most people probably expected this week to be focused on football, as the second transfer portal window opened up Tuesday.

But, so far, all the chatter about it being this massive exodus of talent nationwide hasn’t held up — and Auburn has only had one outgoing player so far. The attention might shift back to the gridiron over the weekend, as the Tigers host a few more transfer targets on visits.

Instead, this week has been about Auburn basketball. Fans are still excited about the addition of Furman transfer point guard JP Pegues to the roster, and the biggest news of all dropped Wednesday evening when Johni Broome announced that he would be back for one more season on the Plains.

This week’s mailbag opens with several basketball questions, including a couple of hypotheticals that are just perfect for the offseason. Then it’s a switch to a few football topics before rounding out with some talk of the Braves and gas station pizza. (I wasn’t able to get to everybody this week, but just know that I see and appreciate all of the questions — including any AEW fantasy-booking ones.)

I want to thank everybody who donated to the EDSBS Charity Bowl this week. You still have time to make your donations, and existing subscribers can get some free time added to their accounts on here by emailing me a copy of their receipt. And if you’re reading this and aren’t a subscriber, just know that all of your subscription money will be donated to the Charity Bowl. It’s quite literally the best possible time to sign up.

Let’s go.

How well do 3-point shooting percentages usually translate when players move between levels (i.e., high school to college, mid-major conference to major conference, etc.)?

In other words, if we see a guard shoot 35% at Furman, how likely is it that they maintain that percentage when transferring up a level in competition?

Michael

This is an awesome question, and it got me to do one of my favorite things: digging for stats.

It’s hard to correlate high school 3-point percentages to the college game, because those pre-college stats aren’t always complete or reliable. But we can learn a lot more about what happens when players jump from smaller college levels to the power conferences.

Pegues shot 35.4% from 3-point range over three seasons at Furman. That’s a good number, especially when you consider he averaged 7.6 3-point attempts per game last season. That’s both taking and making triples at a high volume.

I wrote earlier this week about just how consistent Pegues has proven to be as a scorer, and that includes his ability to shoot the basketball from deep. His 3-point percentages across three seasons at Furman were 35.8%, 34.3% and 36.2%. It’s not like he had one awesome year and one down year, and it all evened out in the middle. He’s consistently right around 35%, which is strong for a ball-dominant guard.

If you go back through the entire Bruce Pearl era at Auburn, you’ll find 15 players who made a step up in competition as transfers — either from mid-majors or non-Division I programs.

Of those 15 players, eight of them improved their 3-point shooting percentages at Auburn. Broome went from hitting zero 3s at Morehead State to 33.6% in his first two seasons. Denver Jones went from 35.9% at FIU to 41.8% last season. Going further back, Samir Doughty improved from 28.4% at VCU to 36.8% at Auburn. Jamal Johnson went from 33.3% at Memphis to 36.9% at Auburn. Desean Murray actually hit 3s at Auburn. Ronnie Johnson shot nearly 38% on the Plains. And Kareem Canty (30.4% to 36.1%) and Antoine Mason (28.8% to 40.2%) made big jumps.

There are a few more who were right around what they were pre-Auburn. Chad Baker-Mazara is a good example, shooting around 40% in his first two Division I stops, knocking down an insane 46.9% in JUCO, and finishing at 41.8% last season. J’Von McCormick saw his percentage only decrease by a single point at Auburn. The same went for KC Ross-Miller.

That leaves only four of those 15 transfers who decreased their 3-point percentages at Auburn. Chaney Johnson went from 37.2% at Division II UAH to 27.3% this past season. Wendell Green Jr. had one season of 36.4% at Eastern Kentucky but fell to 30.7% across two years at Auburn. Zep Jasper dropped from 38.8% to 32.6%. And in the early Pearl Era, Tyler Harris went from 30.5% to 25%.

More often than not, though, transfers making the step up to the SEC are the same 3-point shooters they were — and a good number of them see their shots improve on the Plains. That’s likely due to a change in roles, better spacing thanks to the overall talent level around them and access to high-level facilities and training.

This isn’t just an Auburn thing, either. Look at the All-SEC first team from this past season. Mark Sears (Ohio to Alabama), Dalton Knecht (Northern Colorado to Tennessee), Zyon Pullin (UC Riverside to Florida) and Antonio Reeves (Illinois State to Kentucky) all improved from their previous stops around 40% or better from deep.

If you’re a good shooter at the lower levels, the chances are that you’re going to be able to fill it up in the power conferences. There are exceptions to every rule, but consistent shooters such as Pegues usually get their marksmanship to translate to the SEC. That should be exciting for Auburn fans.

Was the 51/49 split at PG a matter of “if you’re playing 2 QBs it’s b/c you don’t have one?” It didn’t feel like it during most of the year what (glowing analytics & the much celebrated assist:TO ratio). The roster reset says otherwise. Was it inevitable without an early exit?

Will