Aubserver Mailbag 160: Where will the Tigers want to land in March Madness?
This week: Rematches, non-conference scheduling, small forwards, defensive linemen, defensive backs, bobbleheads and Sting
SG K.D. Johnson (Zach Bland/Auburn Tigers)
Location-wise, where would be the best and worst parts of the bracket for Auburn MBB to land?
Auburn Elvis
It’s funny: Last week, the lead section of the mailbag was all about how important it was for Auburn to land a top-four seed and a double bye in the SEC Tournament.
This week, a couple of hours before I started writing this one, Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl was asked about that exact topic. Yet he quickly pivoted it to what he felt was more important — the seeding for the Tigers in the NCAA Tournament.
“Well, the top four seeds is big for the SEC Tournament championship, it is,” Pearl said Friday. “But for me… right now, we’re sort of slotted as a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. And to be in that 4/13, 5/12 block gives you a fighting chance to advance — you’re the best team to go to the Sweet 16. You get a 5 seed and you run into that 5/12 matchup, that’s a 50/50 matchup. You get a 6 seed, which is still very possible for us, where we are right now, you’ve got to play a 3 to the Sweet 16.
“For me, that’s more of my dialogue with the team rather than just top 4 (in the SEC).”
Welcome to March, the best month of the entire calendar for college basketball. Auburn caps its penultimate week of the regular season Saturday afternoon with a home game against a very tough Mississippi State team that has already beaten the Tigers once this season. Slowing down Josh Hubbard, who has scored 30-plus points in back-to-back games, will be crucial. The Bulldogs, on paper, are the third-best team to play in Neville Arena this season.
If Auburn can take care of business as a favorite in its last three games — Mississippi State, Missouri and Georgia — it should get that top-four seed in the SEC Tournament. It should also hold onto a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which would mean the Tigers would be favored to make it to the second weekend.
The dream of jumping to a No. 3 seed is likely out of reach, barring some chaos above the Tigers and/or an extremely impressive run in Nashville. (However, the Selection Committee doesn’t seem to put much weight into the major conference tourneys.) But, right now, Auburn is widely projected to be a No. 4 seed.
On Friday afternoon, I combed through 50 bracketologists that had updated their projections through at least Auburn’s Wednesday loss at Tennessee. Here’s where those brackets had the Tigers seeded:
SEED LINE (50 PROJECTIONS)
4 Seed: 78%
5 Seed: 18%
3 Seed: 4%
As Pearl said, the 4/5 line is where you want to be — unless you can somehow climb to the 3, of course. Falling to the 6 means that Auburn would have to face a higher-rated team in order to make it to the Sweet 16. On the flip side, there isn’t much difference between being a No. 4 or a No. 5. Both seeds face the same type of opponents in the first round: Mid-majors that didn’t win their conference tournaments but still got in, or the best teams from one-bid leagues.
Of those 50 projections, a little more than half of them set up an actual bracket. Here are Auburn’s first-round opponents for those 27 projections:
FIRST-ROUND OPPONENTS (27 PROJECTIONS)
UC Irvine: 22.2%
Samford: 22.2%
Louisiana Tech: 18.5%
South Florida: 14.8%
Akron: 11.1%
Cornell: 3.7%
Grand Canyon: 3.7%
Richmond: 3.7%
A lot of Auburn fans would rather the Tigers avoid Samford, an in-state opponent that has done a whole lot of winning with its fast-paced brand of “Bucky Ball.” South Florida feels more like a No. 12 seed than a No. 13 seed, with the way it’s been winning in the American, but that’s another tricky matchup. While all of these teams would bring something dangerous to the table, some are tougher than others.
When it comes to actual location in the NCAA Tournament, it feels like Auburn is going to be traveling somewhere pretty far, no matter what. The Selection Committee tries to place the best teams the closest to home, then works its way down the seed list. There are two Southern first-round sites this season — Charlotte and Memphis — but those slots are likely going to higher-rated teams in this general region (Houston, Tennessee, North Carolina, Duke, Alabama, Baylor, etc.)
With that in mind, 20 of those above bracket projections actually tried to slot teams into the locations. Here’s where Auburn landed in them:
FIRST WEEKEND LOCATIONS (20 PROJECTIONS)
Spokane: 45%
Brooklyn: 25%
Pittsburgh: 25%
Salt Lake City: 5%
Location-sorting is mostly guesswork until Selection Sunday. But, unlike the last two NCAA Tournaments, you probably aren’t going to see Auburn play somewhat close to home in the first weekend. The same goes for a potential second weekend trip, as the closest regional site is Dallas. The other three are Boston, Detroit and Los Angeles.
Who you play is more important than where you play, though, in March. And, if Auburn takes care of business over the next couple of weeks, it could put itself in a stronger position to make it back to the Sweet 16.
For these opponents Auburn is facing twice, do you think it's better to play them first at home or first on the road?
joshdub